巴克莱-美股-医疗保健行业-美国生命科学与诊断：2020年医疗会议的5大工具与诊断争论-2020.3.2-48页.pdf

1、Equity Research 2 March 2020 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Invest

2、ors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 41.Restricted-Internal U.S.Life Science Tools&Diagnostics Top 5 Tools&Dx Debates for the 2020 Barclays HC Conference Next week,we

3、 are hosting the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference in Miami Beach,FL.Were expecting healthy investor debates amongst our participating companies,including Life Science Tools:BIO,BRKR,FLDM,MTD,PKI,RGEN,TECH&TMO;Diagnostics:EXAS,HOLX,INMD,LMNX,NTRA,QDEL&QGEN;and Labs/CROs/CDMOs:CTLT,CRL,DGX,ICLR,I

4、QV,LH,PPD.The Top 5 Tools&Dx debates we see include:1)The Latest on Covid-19:Near-term,we are mindful of potential Covid-19 risks.That said,once the dust settles and new cases of Covid-19 begin to stabilize,we believe there are going to be some good investment opportunities in the Life Science Tools

5、 group-and there is reason to believe stock pressure will be short-lived.Stock performance for the Life Science Tools&Dx industry has been weak to start 2020(-7%YTD),though is still modestly outperforming the market(down-9%).Our Life Science Tools coverage has the most China exposure,and has underpe

6、rformed the most YTD(down-10%YTD).In Diagnostics,there is some geographic exposure to China,but rapid-testing Dx(QGEN,QDEL)have held up well.The US-based labs have no international risk,though we are mindful of healthcare services plusses and minuses on volumes.The CROs have modest exposure on a rel

7、ative basis,but there could be a near-term pressure.The spread of a novel coronavirus highlights the importance of funding in life science research and new diagnostic tools.We are looking forward to assessing the growing threat with our coverage at the conference,and look for datapoints on how close

8、 the bottom might be.2)Debating the Strength of Biopharma Funding:Given the importance of the biopharma end market for our coverage,the sustainability of its growth remains a critical debate.While we believe investors often view this end market as cyclical in nature,our view is that growth is more s

9、ustainable than the market thinks.We expect the biopharma end market to remain resilient relative to other end markets,and to continue as a growth driver for our coverage.With Jacks Job Board,we continue to see elevated levels of CRO hiring,which we view as a good leading indicator.3)Judging the Hot

10、test Mass Spectrometers in South Beach:In our coverage,we have seen a lot of recent innovation in the field of mass spectrometry a foundational life science tools technology for the analytical lab.Stacking up the recent results,Thermo Fisher was a notable share gainer in 2018,but Bruker picked up st

11、eam in 2019.Waters has notably lost share,while Agilent has been in the middle of the pack.Well be debating Brukers timsTOF Pro and Thermo Fishers Orbitrap at the conference.4)Share Gains vs PAMA Pressure for the National Labs:We believe improved access with national payors represents an opportunity

12、 for the national labs to gain share.In the near-term,we are interested in updates on adoption of the preferred lab network(PLN)with UnitedHealth.Share gains are an important lever to offset pressure from PAMA,which we expect to persist through 2021 following recent passage of the LAB Act.5)Macro Im

13、pact on Operations and Capital Deployment:Were focused on the Industrial end market,wage pressure,and the upcoming US Presidential election.INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S.Life Science Tools&Diagnostics NEUTRAL Unchanged U.S.Life Science Tools&Diagnostics Jack Meehan,CFA+1 212 526 3909 BCI,US Andrew Wald+1 212

14、526 9436 BCI,US Nisarg Shah+1 212 526-3367 BCI,US Barclays|U.S.Life Science Tools&Diagnostics 2 March 2020 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1)WHAT ARE THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FROM COVID-19?.3 Latest Updates on Covid-19 from the WHO.3 Life Science Tools Have Underperformed,Rapid Dx and Labs Have been the Safe

15、 Haven.4 Potential Risks:Sales and Supply Chain Exposure Not Factored in Guidance.6 Potential Opps:Testing Needs in Dx and Life Sciences.11 2)HOW DURABLE IS THE STRENGTH OF BIOPHARMA FUNDING?.14 4Q19 Biopharma End Market Results.14 Barclays Biopharma End Market Trackers.15 Jacks Job Board-CROs:Highe

16、r Hiring is a Good Sign.18 3)WHO HAS THE HOTTEST MASS SPECTROMETER IN SOUTH BEACH?.21 Bruker and the timsTOF Pro.23 Thermo Fisher with Orbitrap.24 Waters with the Cyclic IMS,SYNAPT XS,and BioAccord.25 Google Scholar Trends for Mass Spec.25 4)CAN SHARE GAINS OFFSET PAMA PRESSURE FOR THE NATIONAL LABS?.28 National Labs Should Continue to Gain Share with National Payors.28 Conversely,Regional Lab Results Have Been Mixed.30 PAMA Pressure Will Remain Significant Through 2021.32 5)HOW IS THE MACRO IMP