中信证券-商业零售行业焦点问题探析：关于中国商业流通领域存在问题及其.pdf

1、?021-68762787?S1010510120001?021-68761069?4.5%?1.3%?2005-2010?2.2%?2.9%?3.5%?3.3%?3.5%?3.9%?1?CS?2005-2010?0.6%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%0.9%23.2%27.1%21.9%23.7%24.4%23.9%15.0%17.0%19.0%21.0%23.0%25.0%27.0%29.0%0.50%0.55%0.60%0.65%0.70%0.75%0.80%0.85%0.90%0.95%200520062007200820092010?/?%?/?%?Wind?0.5%-1%?1%-

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3、)2000 2000?6?1?,?,?,?1000?,?,?,?,?,?,?2012?2?28?3?2009?6?12?2011?12?1?0.906?/?0.7097?/?27.7%?44%?3?/?1-10?68.49 35-110?65.99?220?63.49 1-10?89.85 35-110?87.35?220?84.85 1-10?98.85 35-110?96.35?220?93.85?61.00?4?2009?2.54%72.52%1.67%?,3.07%5.91%13.16%1.14%?CEIC?5%?40%?22%-24%?3%?60?2009?15?2012?2?28?

4、4?8?4?2005?2005?3?28?15?5?2010?%?000759.SZ?679 118.72 110.91 7.81 6.58%600361.SH?94 103.39 93.89 9.50 9.19%002251.SZ?106 67.70 63.41 4.30 6.35%002264.SZ?96 43.64 41.31 2.33 5.35%002336.SZ?99 100.41 89.42 10.99 10.94%601933.SH?156 123.17 119.03 4.14 3.36%601116.SH?145 48.24 46.30 1.94 4.02%?6?2010?+?

5、000759.SZ?14.77 18.45-3.67 600361.SH?10.18 17.90-7.72 002251.SZ?9.93 11.28-1.36 002264.SZ?6.43 7.48-1.06 002336.SZ?9.95 17.70-7.75 601933.SH?19.43 18.40 1.04 601116.SH?6.33 6.51-0.18?2012?2?28?5?20?30?2005?2006?10?12?2006?11?15?2011?12?26?2011?12?2012?6?2011?12?26?2012?2?28?6?1996?GDP?2003?GDP?21.4%

6、?2011?1-11?GDP?18.5%?1997?GDP?9.6%?2000?GDP?10.1%?5?2010?GDP?18.1%8.3%8.7%8.3%8.1%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%?6?2011?GDP?17.90%17.70%18.00%18.50%18.50%18.70%18.70%18.70%18.50%17%17%18%18%18%18%18%19%19%2011?1-3?2011?1-4?2011?1-5?2011?1-6?2011?1-7?2011?1-8?2011?1-9?2011?1-10?2011?1-11?GDP?%?Wind?7?2011?H

7、1?,12.30%?,35.40%?,52.20%?2012?2?28?7?7?2009?4?2009?2011?2011?4?2011?6?2009?2011?10?2012?1?1?2009?3%?5%?2012?1?1?2011?1500?2010?30%?2012?2?28?8?8?2011?362620001760165751722420018817312212211505001000150020002500300035004000?2011?9?2009Q1-2011Q3?72838562111313110537103860204060801001201402009Q12009Q2

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9、-2011Q3?2011?1-9?2010?40%(?6.3?50%?50%?11?2.61%3.77%3.67%3.52%3.61%3.70%4.36%4.67%3.90%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%20072008200920102011H1?2007?2010?5?2006?3.05%?4.06%?2010?3.96%?4.59%?2007?1.70%?2010?2.24%?2012?2?28?9?4%?9.7%?2004-2010?3000?3.82?54.5%?B2B?2010?89%?2008?15%?B2C/C2C?2004?150?2010?46

10、00?77%?3?70%?12?B2C/C2C,2004-2010?13?B2B?2012?2?28?10?10%?B2CC2C?B2B?B2B?C2C?B2C?C2C?B2C?B2C?Amazon?Amazon?1995?2003?8?2003?1995-2002?30?1997?Amazon?1995-2000?22%-23%?B2C?B2C?1997?B2C?14?Amazon?1995-2003?15?Amazon?1995-2011E?Capital IQ,?2012?2?2012?2?28?11?C2C?2007?3?6?(?)?1998?(?)?3?2011?4.5%?5%?10

11、%?2011?17%?2011?50%?100?400?200?2012?2?28?12?16?17?400?20?1.?2.?3.?4.?2012?2?28?13?2012?2?2010?1.5?11%?2012?2?28?14?18?2002-2010E?2010?2010?19?2010?CR10?11%?,?0.4%?,?6.7%?,?1.9%?,?1.0%?,?0.9%?2010?2010?2011?11?1?2010?123?60?70%?70%?1.?2.?3.?2012?2?28?15?8?2006?2006?2006?2000?2008?2009?2010?2011?2011

12、?4?2011?000061?Analyst Certification?i?ii?The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject secu

13、rities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.?/?(?)?(1)?(2)?/?/?2012?300?20%?300?5%?20%?300?-10%?5%?300?10%?300?10%?300?-10%?10%?1.?6?6?300?2.?6?300?300?10%?4

14、8?100125?1568?22?200122?8?518048?1?26?Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.?-?This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.Securities Business License Number:Z2037

15、4000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.?Z20374000?1934?15a-6(a)(2)?15a-6?