（零售）中信证券-商业零售行业模式探讨系列报告之三：谁动了我的钱包？-我国商品价格体系现状分析与展望-120109.pdf

1、201912?021-687?zxqci62787 ?021-68761879?S1010510120001?1?1?2?3?4?5?6?7?2012?1?9?1?42?30?25?45?1990?31?27?1?35%?20?30?1930?50?GDP?65%?2012?1?9?2?50%?2?2011?2010?36262000176016575172242001881731221221150500?10001500200025003000350040002011?1000?600?72?48?240?240?400?120?80?90?110?50%?10%?2012?1?9?3?3?

2、7248240240120809011002004006008001000?00?10?10?35?55?HM?GAP?Inditex?SPA?Specialty Retailer of Private Label Apparel,?4?400?100?80?220?65?10?55?30?45?90?35?45?10?400?15?2012?1?9?4?5?10?A?3%5%9%11%11%11%15%15%19%24%28%35%78%0%20%40%60%80%100%?CEIC?6?2010?GDP(?)?CEIC?20?SPA?Inditex?Zara?7?SPA?SPA?GAP?8

3、?SPA?GAP?2?K?7?+?2012?1?9?5?K?+?+?K?2?1%-3%2%-5%8%-50%11%-20%?1%-3%1.5%-3%8%-40%20%-40%?50%-70%?5%-20%10%-20%15%-90%?World Gold Council?100?33?25?5?42?9?K?42?21?10?K?11?2010?40%51%29%49%23%08%00%20%40%60%80%100%?12?2004-2010?1933633516328129411,3118201,0201,3621,1411,32042622705001,0001,500200420052

4、0062007200820092010?2012?1?9?6?+?1610?115?36?52?300?3000?180?130?2800?200?13?14?60%-70%?17%?5%-30%?45%?2012?1?9?7?3?35%135%76%?0%-1017%?10%-20%135%00%17%?11%-20%80%62%-100%20%17%?25%40%?14%-130%17%?10%84%150%30%17%?6.5%-15%150%30%17%84%?25%180%25%-17%109%45%?)10%?30%?65%180%10%-20%17%79%?15%-30%70%-

5、130%17%40%?8%-10%50%17%29%?1000?10%?30%?17%?1838?84%?838?109%?79%?84%?30%-40%?15?2012?1?9?8?1930?35%?20?30?50?65%?4?19?70?20?80?220?20?30?5030?20?20?50?80?200?80?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?GDP 35KUSD 10KUSD USD-20KUSD0KUSD-35KU?,?,?,?,?,?80%?,?,?60%?,?65%?,?74%?,?75%?,?,?,?;?,?IT?,?.,?.?+?+?+?+?4000?50%?

6、1?2?3?4?GDP?2000?GDP?4000?20?2012?1?9?9?arch report contained earch report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific reco?(1)?20?Analyst Certif

7、ication?i?ii?The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the reseherein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this resabout themmendations or views expressed in this research report.?/?(?)?(2)?/?/?12?300?20%?5%?20%?300?300?-10%?5%?300?10%?300?10%?300?-10%?10%?1.?

8、6?2.?6?300?6?300?300?10%?48?100125?1568?22?200122?8?518048?1?26?Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.?-?This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.Securities Bus

9、iness License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.?Z20374000?1934?15a-6(a)(2)?15a-6?