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类型比亚迪海豹汽车拆解报告.pdf

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    1、ab31 August 2023Global Research and Evidence LabPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESQ-SeriesBYD teardown:Will Chinese EVs win globally?Tearing down the latest-gen model from the Chinese number one EV maker We are adding BYD Seal to the series of UBS EV teardowns,the latest-gen 20 pct pts of their market sh

    2、are by 2030We consider two-thirds of the global car market to be addressable by a concentrated group of Chinese EV makers,enabled by local assembly in the target markets.In our base case,the global market share of Chinese OEMs will grow from 17%to 33%by 2030,with European OEMs seeing the biggest los

    3、s of market share.The global market share of legacy OEMs could drop from 81%to 58%between now and 2030,with a skew towards the structurally shrinking ICE segment.This will likely also strongly disrupt the global supplier landscape,which remains underexposed to the rising Chinese OEMs and Tesla.Cost

    4、leadership through vertical integration and scaleBYD takes the cost leadership even 15%ahead of Tesla.We estimate 16%gross margin and 5%EBIT margin for BYD Seal,similar to profits made on mass-market combustion engine cars globally.Compared with mass EVs from legacy OEMs,BYD Seal is the better and m

    5、uch cheaper car,thanks to high vertical integration that leverages BYDs cost lead in battery cells,vehicle integration,powertrain and electronics modules.Connectivity and ADAS are also state of the art,but the latter is outsourced.Leading Chinese OEMs most favoured,European mass OEMs least favouredG

    6、lobal mass-market OEMs,especially those with China and European exposure,are least favoured.We see VW,Renault,Volvo Car and Honda most negatively exposed.On aggregate,Korean,Japanese and premium and luxury OEMs are likely to be less negatively affected,at least outside China.Next to Tesla,which coul

    7、d be one of the worlds largest carmakers by 2030,we see a handful of Chinese EV makers emerging as new global champions,including BYD.Chinese EV and tech suppliers such as CATL are likely to be key beneficiaries from the rise of Chinese global EV champions.This report has been prepared by UBS AG.ANA

    8、LYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS,begin on page 87.UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest

    9、 that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.EquitiesGlobalAutomobilesPatrick Hummel,CFAAnalyst +41-44-239 52 54Paul GongAnalyst +852-2971 7868David LesneAnalyst +33-14-888 3034Wan Zhang,CFAAnalyst

    10、 +41-44-239 3875Juan Perez-CarrascosaAnalyst juan- +34-91-436 9025Kohei TakahashiAnalyst +81-3-5208 6172Yoon ChoAnalyst +82-2-3702 8805Pramod KumarAnalyst +91-22-6155 6063Tim BushAnalyst tim- +82-2-3702 8801Francois-Xavier BouvigniesAnalyst +44-20-7568 7105Timothy ArcuriAnalyst +1-415-352 5676David

    11、VogtAnalyst +1-212-713 4296 Q-Series 31 August 2023ab 2ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY.3Chinese EVs set to conquer the world?.15The global rise of the Chinese auto industry has already begun.15Introduction BYD Seal:Testimony to Chinese EV strengths.17BYD Seal teardown:Detailed analysis versus competition.

    12、21Summarising the KPIs.21Detailed teardown analysis.22How different are BYDs supply chains versus competition?.41P&L how profitable is Seal to BYD?.43Globalisation of Chinese OEMs how will it play out?.45How will BYD leverage its competitive edge?.50Could regulation stop the rise of Chinese carmaker

    13、s?.53Local assembly in EU as next step for leading Chinese OEMs.57Seismic shifts in global auto industry.59Legacy OEMs could lose 30%of their global market share.59Screening the global UBS OEM coverage.64NEAR-AND MEDIUM-TERM SIGNPOSTS.66Sector Thesis Maps.67Patrick Hummel,CFAAnalyst +41-44-239 52 54

    14、Paul GongAnalyst +852-2971 7868David LesneAnalyst +33-14-888 3034Wan Zhang,CFAAnalyst +41-44-239 3875Juan Perez-CarrascosaAnalyst juan- +34-91-436 9025Kohei TakahashiAnalyst +81-3-5208 6172Yoon ChoAnalyst +82-2-3702 8805Pramod KumarAnalyst +91-22-6155 6063Tim BushAnalyst tim- +82-2-3702 8801Francois

    15、-Xavier BouvigniesAnalyst +44-20-7568 7105Timothy ArcuriAnalyst +1-415-352 5676David VogtAnalyst +1-212-713 4296 Q-Series 31 August 2023ab 3Q-SeriesUBS ResearchEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 1:Key conclusions of this report at a glanceSource:UBS estimates Tearing down the latest-gen EV from Chinas#1 carmak

    16、erWhy does this report matter now?While the EV transition of legacy OEMs is happening at a moderate pace,Tesla and BYD gap away.After disrupting global legacy OEMs in China,BYD and other leading Chinese OEMs are set to conquer the world market with high-tech,low-cost EVs for the masses,hereby accelerating global EV adoption.A more challenging China macro outlook could even intensify globalisation efforts of those OEMs that can afford it.With the teardown of Seal,BYDs latest iteration in the high

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