比亚迪海豹汽车拆解报告.pdf
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1、ab31 August 2023Global Research and Evidence LabPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESQ-SeriesBYD teardown:Will Chinese EVs win globally?Tearing down the latest-gen model from the Chinese number one EV maker We are adding BYD Seal to the series of UBS EV teardowns,the latest-gen 20 pct pts of their market sh
2、are by 2030We consider two-thirds of the global car market to be addressable by a concentrated group of Chinese EV makers,enabled by local assembly in the target markets.In our base case,the global market share of Chinese OEMs will grow from 17%to 33%by 2030,with European OEMs seeing the biggest los
3、s of market share.The global market share of legacy OEMs could drop from 81%to 58%between now and 2030,with a skew towards the structurally shrinking ICE segment.This will likely also strongly disrupt the global supplier landscape,which remains underexposed to the rising Chinese OEMs and Tesla.Cost
4、leadership through vertical integration and scaleBYD takes the cost leadership even 15%ahead of Tesla.We estimate 16%gross margin and 5%EBIT margin for BYD Seal,similar to profits made on mass-market combustion engine cars globally.Compared with mass EVs from legacy OEMs,BYD Seal is the better and m
5、uch cheaper car,thanks to high vertical integration that leverages BYDs cost lead in battery cells,vehicle integration,powertrain and electronics modules.Connectivity and ADAS are also state of the art,but the latter is outsourced.Leading Chinese OEMs most favoured,European mass OEMs least favouredG
6、lobal mass-market OEMs,especially those with China and European exposure,are least favoured.We see VW,Renault,Volvo Car and Honda most negatively exposed.On aggregate,Korean,Japanese and premium and luxury OEMs are likely to be less negatively affected,at least outside China.Next to Tesla,which coul
7、d be one of the worlds largest carmakers by 2030,we see a handful of Chinese EV makers emerging as new global champions,including BYD.Chinese EV and tech suppliers such as CATL are likely to be key beneficiaries from the rise of Chinese global EV champions.This report has been prepared by UBS AG.ANA
8、LYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS,begin on page 87.UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
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