摩根士丹利深度-特斯拉的衰落.pdf

1、Adam.JEvan.SDaniela.HMatias.ODiego.Ortega.LMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCAdam Jonas,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761-1726Evan Silverberg,CFA,CPARESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-4376Daniela M HaigianRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-6071Matias B OvrumRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-5956Diego Ortega LayaRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 21

2、2 761-9835Autos&Shared Mobility/United States of AmericaStock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice target$330.00Shr price,close(Dec 20,2022)$137.80Mkt cap,curr(mm)$477,89052-Week Range$402.67-137.66Fiscal Year EndingFiscal Year Ending12/2112/2112/22e12/22e12/23e12/23e12/24e12/24eEPS($)*2.263.99

3、4.085.39Prior EPS($)*-ModelWare EPS($)1.633.543.624.92Unless otherwise noted,all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWareframework*=Based on consensus methodologye=Morgan Stanley Research estimates Stock RatingOverweight Industry ViewIn-Line Price Target$330.00Tesla IncTesla Inc|North America N

4、orth AmericaTeslas Decline:Will Big AutoBlink On Electric Vehicles?Tesla has shed$600bn of value in just 3 months.As theambassador of EVs,Teslas valuation raises questions forinvestment returns and capital formation across the sector.Isit time to consider alternative technological paths in additiont

5、o EVs?We view this as a buying opportunity,reit.OW.A few thoughts on EVs heading into 20231.Big auto blinking?It was far easier to take EV hegemony for granted at 0%Fed funds and when Tesla was a trillion$company.Are we sure batteries are theonly(or ultimate)path to decarbonizing transport?Is the te

6、chnology cheapenough?Is our electric grid ready?Are the enabling policies viable?Stories likePorsche(covered by Harald Hendrikse)investing in eFuels as a dual path/complementary technology to EVs is worth watching.2.Deflation:Look for Tesla to use its cost and scale advantage as a competitiveforce.T

7、eslas price cuts started in China and we expect them to quickly spread toEurope and the US.While circular in nature,lower EV prices are important forthe next leg of mass adoption,but depress the returns of many of the companiesexpected to compete against Tesla.3.Transparency:We anticipate Fords Mode

8、l e unit(to be disclosed 1Q23)willclearly display that legacy EVs are not profitable today.We believe Fordsdivisional re-organization may be an important moment for the industry inunderstanding the trade-offs of capital allocation and margin loss vs.terminalvalue preservation in legacy autos.While t

9、he intercompany transfer pricing andimpact of government incentives may take a while to sift through,we expect amore open and balanced understanding of the risk/reward for EVs.4.Respect:Its time to recognize the wisdom of Toyota.Akio Toyoda,leader ofthe worlds largest and highest valued legacy auto

10、company,Toyota(covered byShinji Kakiuchi),refers to the silent majority of auto executives who questionover-committing to EV strategies at the sacrifice of other decarbonizingtechnologies.The vocal majority of auto industry followers(this author included)had criticized Toyotas resistance to keep up

11、with EV launches from competitors.While Toyota will eventually achieve scale in EVs,the later/follower approachmay prove optimal over time.5.Jumping the electric shark?We would prepare for the application of IRA forlegacy OEMs to disappoint vs.current high expectations.We ask investors toTesla Inc(T

12、SLA.O,TSLA US)Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research a

13、s only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.1December 21,2022 06:07 PM GMTimagine the narrative of tens of billions of$of taxpayer funds to help givevertically int

14、egrated and high scale players like Tesla an even greater advantageover high-employing traditional OEMs.Think about it.6.Attrition:With respect to emerging(non-Tesla)EV startup strategy we believehunkering down to manage the pace of cash burn is a winning strategy.Weanticipate more challenging capit

15、al markets environment may limit the numberof EV players that can achieve sustainable scale.7.Forced capital discipline.Volkswagen(covered by Harald Hendrikse)spendsits entire enterprise value in combined capex+R&D in just 1 year.How longcompanies spend at this rate?In our view,its the capital not d

16、eployed that canfrequently create the most value in auto stocks.In 2023,we think legacyautomakers like GM and Ford have an opportunity to reconsider the quantumand timing of their EV investment plans last established during a very differenteconomic and interest rate environment of 2020/2021.Exhibit 1:US BEV Sales Penetration(milestone years)13%32%55%75%86%90%11%26%50%75%86%90%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2025e2030e2035e2040e2045e2050eOld EV Penetration EstimateNew EV Penetration EstimateSour