贝恩-行业分析方法-分析方法-bainmath004.ppt

1、Author:Collins Qian Reviewer:Brian Bilello bc Bain Math March 1998 Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.2 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Agenda Basic math Financial math Statistical math BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.3 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Agenda Basic math ratio propo

2、rtion percent inflation foreign exchange graphing Financial math Statistical math BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.4 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Ratio Definition:Application:Note:The ratio of A to B is written or A:B AB A ratio can be used to calculate price per unit (),given the total revenue and tot

3、al units Price Unit total revenue=Given:=Answer:Price Unit$9MM 1.5MM The math for ratios is simple.Identifying a relevant unit can be challenging total units=price/unit=$9.0 MM 1.5 MM$?$6.0 BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.5 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Proportion Definition:If the ratio of A to B is e

4、qual to the ratio of C to D,then A and B are proportional to C and D.Application:=It follows that A x D=B x C AB CD Revenue=SG&A =Given:$135MM$83MM$270MM$?1996 1999 Answer:$135MM$270MM$83MM$?135MM x?=83MM x 270MM 83MMx270MM 135MM=The concept of proportion can be used to project SG&A costs in 1999,gi

5、ven revenue in 1996,SG&A costs in 1996,and revenue in 1999(assuming SG&A and revenue in 1999 are proportional to SG&A and revenue in 1996)?=$166MM BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.6 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Percent Definition:A percentage(abbreviated“percent”)is a convenient way to express a ratio.

6、Literally,percentage means“per 100.”Application:In percentage terms,0.25=25 per 100 or 25%In her first year at Bain,an AC logged 7,000 frequent flier miles by flying to her client.In her second year,she logged 25,000 miles.What is the percentage increase in miles?Given:A percentage can be used to ex

7、press the change in a number from one time period to the next Answer:-1=3.57-1=2.57=257%25,000 7,000%change=-1 new value-original value original value new value original value The ratio of 5 to 20 is or 0.25 5 20 BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.7 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Inflation-Definitions If a

8、n item cost$1.00 in 1997 and cost$1.03 in 1998,inflation was 3%from 1997 to 1998.The item is not intrinsically more valuable in 1998-the dollar is less valuable When calculating the“real”growth of a dollar figure over time(e.g.,revenue growth,unit cost growth),it is necessary to subtract out the eff

9、ects of inflation.Inflationary growth is not“real”growth because inflation does not create intrinsic value.Definition:A price deflator is a measure of inflation over time.Related Terminology:1.Real(constant)dollars:2.Nominal (current)dollars:3.Price deflator Price deflator(current year)Price deflato

10、r(base year)Inflation between current year and base year=Dollar figure(current year)Dollar figure(base year)=Dollar figures for a number of years that are stated in a chosen“base”years dollar terms(i.e.,inflation has been taken out).Any year can be chosen as the base year,but all dollar figures must

11、 be stated in the same base year Dollar figures for a number of years that are stated in each individual years dollar terms(i.e.,inflation has not been taken out).Inflation is defined as the year-over-year decrease in the value of a unit of currency.BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.8 CU7112997ECA

12、 Bain Math Inflation-U.S.Price Deflators *1996 is the base year Note:These are the U.S.Price Deflators which WEFA Group has forecasted through the year 2020.The library has purchased this time series for all Bain employees to use.Year1996=100*%ChangeYear1996=100*%Change197027.79 5.32 1996100.00 1.95

13、 197129.23 5.18 1997101.97 1.97 197230.46 4.23 1998104.48 2.46 197332.18 5.64 1999107.10 2.51 197435.07 8.99 2000109.80 2.52 197538.36 9.37 2001112.51 2.47 197640.61 5.86 2002115.41 2.58 197743.23 6.45 2003118.58 2.75 197846.37 7.26 2004122.02 2.90 197950.35 8.58 2005125.65 2.97 198055.00 9.25 20061

14、29.31 2.92 198160.18 9.41 2007132.96 2.82 198263.97 6.30 2008136.57 2.71 198366.68 4.24 2009140.26 2.70 198469.21 3.79 2010144.06 2.71 198571.59 3.43 2011147.89 2.65 198673.46 2.62 2012151.90 2.72 198775.71 3.06 2013156.05 2.73 198878.48 3.65 2014160.29 2.72 198981.79 4.22 2015164.73 2.76 199085.34

15、4.34 2016169.25 2.75 199188.72 3.97 2017173.83 2.71 199291.16 2.75 2018178.53 2.70 199393.54 2.62 2019183.33 2.69 199495.67 2.28 2020188.31 2.71 199598.08 2.51 A deflator table lists price deflators for a number of years.BOS Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.9 CU7112997ECA Bain Math Inflation-Real vs.

16、Nominal Figures To understand how a company has performed over time(e.g.,in terms of revenue,costs,or profit),it is necessary to remove inflation,(i.e.use real figures).Since most companies use nominal figures in their annual reports,if you are showing the clients revenue over time,it is preferable to use nominal figures.For an experience curve,where you want to understand how price or cost has changed over time due to accumulated experience,you must use real figures Note:When to use real vs.Nom