44业务季节与循环变动.xls

1、历史数据计算过程计算结果年份季度主营业务收入四季移动平均年份第一季度1998132199824019990.8736141.381.474320000.9442843.880.6382同季平均0.91199914146.880.8747季节指数%90.8825149.501.0303结论37452.501.409543656.250.6400200015760.380.944126565.380.9943393457第一季度第二季度第三季度第四季度-20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 季度季节指数第二季度第三季度第四季度合计1

2、.470.641.031.410.640.991.011.440.641.00101.16144.1063.87旺季淡季历史数据计算年月营业收入季节指数剔除季节变动长期趋势剔除趋势变动循环变动199714072.655.1343.24127.5025097.051.5443.98117.20117.9634184.048.8344.72109.19111.2643979.948.8245.46107.39106.8354593.848.0046.19103.91103.65653113.346.7746.9399.66103.31768134.150.7147.67106.37102.7487

3、3147.649.4748.41102.2099.56950112.944.2849.1590.1095.081048103.546.3649.8992.9494.57114384.450.9650.63100.6796.55123877.049.3351.3696.03103.48199814372.659.2752.10113.75103.7425297.053.6052.84101.44105.0734584.053.5953.58100.0298.6544179.951.3254.3294.4895.8354893.851.2055.0693.0096.76665113.357.365

4、5.79102.81100.00779134.158.9156.53104.20102.93886147.658.2857.27101.77101.23964112.956.6858.0197.7199.381060103.557.9558.7598.6595.34114584.453.3359.4989.6692.22124177.053.2260.2388.3789.49199914072.655.1360.9690.4395.2426497.065.9761.70106.92102.6635884.069.0762.44110.62109.5045679.970.1063.18110.9

5、5111.1356793.871.4763.92111.81107.92674113.365.3064.66101.00102.87784134.162.6465.4095.7898.05895147.664.3866.1397.3597.93976112.967.3166.87100.6698.391068103.565.6867.6197.1498.30115684.466.3768.3597.1197.32125277.067.5069.0997.70101.12200015572.675.8169.83108.56103.8127297.074.2270.56105.18105.773

6、6284.073.8471.30103.56104.3346079.975.1072.04104.25103.4757093.874.6772.78102.59103.36686113.375.8973.52103.23101.41798134.173.0874.2698.4199.758108147.673.1975.0097.6099.25987112.977.0575.73101.7499.291078103.575.3476.4798.5298.99116384.474.6777.2196.7097.27125877.075.2977.9596.58长期趋势估值Y=43.24+0.7385*T(T为时间)循环变动曲线147 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 时间循环变动值季节变动曲线1234567891011120.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 月份季节指数