证券公司财务预测与估值模型.xls

1、证证券券公公司司财财务务预预测测与与估估值值模模型型Financial Projection and Valuation ModelSecurities Company模模型型说说明明货币人民币数量单位百万元分析员联系方式最后修改日期格格式式区区分分8,341=输入数字假设，可以变动8,341=历史或给定数字，不能变动8,341=公式，不能变动=模型的批注证证券券公公司司财财务务预预测测与与估估值值模模型型Financial Projection and Valuation ModelSecurities Company证证券券公公司司模模型型 Securities Company Model

2、目录 Contents工工作作表表内内容容工工作作表表名名称称总总体体说说明明封面Cover目录Contents分分业业务务预预测测及及辅辅助助运运算算表表格格经纪业务表Brokerage投行业务表IBanking资产管理业务表AM自营业务表Prop Trading融资融券业务表Margin Trading直接投资业务表Direct Inv利息净收入表IntBASE法则计算表BASE财财务务预预测测核核心心表表利润表IS资产负债表BS现金流量表CFS估估值值分分析析可比公司分析表Comps说说明明/备备注注本页核心财务报表之一(关键是利润表）核心财务报表之一核心财务报表之一上市券商当前估值倍数

3、水平比较证证券券公公司司模模型型 Securities Company Model经纪业务 Brokerage2006A2007A2008A2009A除百分比和特殊说明外，单位为百万元本本表表假假设设情情景景假假设设1牛市情景1中性情景2熊市情景3上证指数牛市情景中性情景2,6755,2621,8213,277熊市情景应用中情景股票融资额/GDP牛市情景中性情景1.2%3.0%1.1%1.5%熊市情景应用中情景两市股票平均日换手率（流通市值）牛市情景中性情景2.5%4.0%1.7%2.4%熊市情景应用中情景整整体体市市场场其其他他假假设设名义GDP增长率22.9%18.1%8.6%交易日（天）

4、241243246244IPO融资额/股票融资额增发融资额/股票融资额配股融资额/股票融资额平均IPO发行股份占发行方总股份的比例流通比率27.9%28.5%37.3%62.1%基金成交金额/股票成交金额权证成交金额增长率债券成交金额增长率证证券券经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入股票交易市场份额4.2%股票交易净佣金率0.147%基金交易市场份额基金交易净佣金率权证交易市场份额权证交易净佣金率债券交易市场份额债券交易净佣金率场外代理销售金融产品净收入/代理买卖证券业务净收入1.3%期期货货经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入股指期货交易额占股票现货市场交易额比重证券公司股指期货交易额市场份额期货公司手续费

5、率期货公司向中国金融期货交易所缴纳的手续费率商品期货经纪业务净收入市市场场整整体体情情况况宏宏观观经经济济GDP（亿元）216,314265,810314,045340,903股股票票上证指数2,6755,2621,8213,277两市股票总融资额（亿元）（融资内部结构）2,6978,0443,3585,128IPO融资额（亿元）1,6434,4701,0342,022增发融资额（亿元）1,0503,3462,1723,000配股融资额（亿元）4228152106两市总市值（亿元）89,404327,140121,366243,939两市股票代表的证券化率(可作为检验假设）41.3%123.1

6、%38.6%71.6%流通比率（与指数不太相关不做情景假设）27.9%28.5%37.3%62.1%两市流通市值（亿元）24,96893,24445,328151,394两市股票平均日换手率（总市值）0.9%0.5%1.2%两市股票平均日换手率（流通市值）2.5%4.0%1.7%2.4%两市股票日均成交金额（亿元）3731,9001,0842,188两两市市股股票票成成交交金金额额（亿亿元元）89,983461,723266,636533,935基基金金、权权证证、债债券券基金成交金额（亿元）权证成交金额（亿元）债券成交金额（亿元）证证券券经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入代代理理买买卖卖股股票票业

7、业务务收收入入股票交易市场份额（海通证券）4.2%股票交易额（亿元）（买卖）5,91336,31222,83544,482股票交易净佣金率0.147%代代理理买买卖卖股股票票业业务务收收入入（注注意意单单位位换换算算百百万万）代代理理买买卖卖基基金金业业务务收收入入基金交易市场份额基金交易额（亿元）基金交易净佣金率代代理理买买卖卖基基金金业业务务收收入入代代理理买买卖卖权权证证业业务务收收入入权证交易市场份额权证交易额（亿元）权证交易净佣金率代代理理买买卖卖权权证证业业务务收收入入代代理理买买卖卖债债券券业业务务收收入入债券交易市场份额债券交易额（亿元）债券交易净佣金率代代理理买买卖卖债债券券

8、业业务务收收入入代代理理买买卖卖证证券券业业务务净净收收入入代理买卖股票业务净收入代理买卖基金业务净收入代理买卖权证业务净收入代理买卖债券业务净收入代代理理买买卖卖证证券券业业务务净净收收入入6,274证证券券经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入场外代理销售金融产品净收入80证证券券经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入6,354期期货货经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入股股指指期期货货经经纪纪业业务务收收入入股票市场交易额（亿元）461,723266,636533,935股指期货交易额占股票现货市场交易额比重股指期货交易额（亿元）证券公司股指期货交易额（亿元）净手续费率股股指指期期货货经经纪纪业业务务收收入入商品期

9、货经纪业务收入期期货货经经纪纪业业务务净净收收入入End2010A2011A2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2,4002,6883,0113,3723,7762,8082,1992,2002,2012,2022,2032,2042,0002,0012,0022,0032,0042,4002,6883,0113,3723,7761.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%2.5%1.5%0.9%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.1%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.6

10、%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%17.8%17.4%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%24224424324324324324345.0%43.5%42.0%40.5%39.0%45.0%46.0%47.0%48.0%49.0%10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%72.8%76.8%77.7%78.5%79.2%79.8%80.3%3.1%2.9%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%-76.8%-100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%208

11、.1%20.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%0.118%0.100%0.092%0.085%0.080%0.080%0.080%3.4%4.6%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%0.092%0.085%0.080%0.080%0.080%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%0.050%0.050%0.050%0.050%0.050%7.0%5.6%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%0.010%0.010%0.010%0.010%0.010%1.6%2.1%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%

12、75.3%104.6%120.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%8.3%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%0.010%0.005%0.005%0.005%0.005%0.005%0.003%0.003%0.003%0.003%100105110116122401,513471,564542,298623,643717,189824,768948,4832,8082,1992,4002,6883,0113,3723,77609,8607,0195,4236,8608,6069,89711,38204,9112,7202,4402,9843,6154,0084,43903,

13、5103,8772,4403,1564,0454,7515,57701,4384225427209471,1381,3660265,423214,758247,087292,550347,107410,682484,662#DIV/0!66.1%45.5%45.6%46.9%48.4%49.8%51.1%#DIV/0!72.8%76.8%77.7%78.5%79.2%79.8%80.3%0.0%193,200165,002191,987229,652274,908327,724389,184#DIV/0!0.9%0.7%00000-1.1%0.7%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%0.0

14、%2,2511,7221,3442,0673,0244,2605,838#DIV/0!544,671420,073326,570502,249734,8301,035,2801,418,574#DIV/0!（相比2011年出现萎缩）17,03012,0639,79715,06722,04531,05842,557#DIV/0!29,9966,955-121,722375,071450,085495,093544,603599,063658,969658,9694.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%0.0%44,19634,47326,77941,18460,25684,893

15、116,323#DIV/0!0.118%0.100%0.092%0.085%0.080%0.080%0.080%0.000%2,4643,5014,8206,7919,306#DIV/0!3.4%4.6%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%5725564026189041,2731,7450.092%0.085%0.080%0.080%0.080%3753721021402.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%759171-0.050%0.050%0.050%0.050%0.050%-7.0%5.6%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%8,46021,00427,005

16、29,70632,67635,94439,5380.010%0.010%0.010%0.010%0.010%2702973273593952,4643,5014,8206,7919,306375372102140-2702973273593954,8643,0412,7713,8505,2207,2539,841766369961301812464,9403,1042,8403,9465,3507,43410,087544,671420,073326,570502,249734,8301,035,2801,418,57475.3%104.6%120.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%410,093439,335391,884753,3731,469,6602,588,2004,255,72235,27067,804132,269232,938383,0150.005%0.003%0.003%0.003%0.003%1761703315829581001051101161222762754416981,079证证券券公公司司模模型型 Securities Company