安信估值模型.xls

1、财财务务报报表表预预测测和和估估值值模模型型(新新会会计计准准则则)V3.020212021年年5 5月月1111日日全局参数输入目录股票代码6003511预测假设股价日期2018-2-62利润表最新报告期20183股东权益变动表货币单位1,000,0004资产负债表报表类型5现金流量表股票简称#NAME?6资本开支股价(元)#NAME?7现金&负债最新股本(千股)#NAME?8估值9财务指标10杜邦分析年度报表43Q4一季度报表一季度报表 Q1中期报表Q1中期报表Q2三季度报表H三季度报表 Q3年度报表Q3年度报表4年年期期分析师李李震震龙龙021-历史年份预测年份年度报表201520162

2、01720182019E2020E资产负债表差额检查#NAME?#NAME?经营活动营业收入增长率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?30.00%25.00%营业成本/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?65.00%65.00%营业税率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?3.50%3.50%销售费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?17.00%17.00%管理费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.00%6.00%实际所得税率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?25.00%25.00%投资收益#NAME?#NAME?

3、#NAME?#NAME?-汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-营业外收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.001.00资产处置利得1.00-政府补贴-其他营业外收入1.001.00营业外支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?1.002.00资产处置损失-1.00其他营业外支出1.001.00利润分配法定盈余公积提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%10.00%法定公益金提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.00%5.00%任意盈余公积提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?

4、1.00%0.00%少数股东权益/股东权益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.00%5.00%分红比率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.00%50.00%营运资金营业现金/营业收入8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%应收票据周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.500.50应收帐款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.0050.00其他应收款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?15.0015.00存货周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?80.0080

5、.00应付帐款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.0050.00应付票据周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.006.00其他应付款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.00预收帐款/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.40%0.40%预付帐款/营业成本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.10%0.10%其他流动资产/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%其他流动负债/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%10.00%其他非流动资产/营业收入#NAME?

6、#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%其他非流动负债/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%坏帐准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.80%6.80%存货跌价准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%长期股权投资减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%固定资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%在建工程减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%无形资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?

7、0.00%0.00%其他资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?其他资产&负债一年内到期非流动资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-长期股权投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.00生物资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-油气资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-开发支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-商誉#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-长期待摊费用#NAME?#NAME?#

8、NAME?#NAME?-递延所得税资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.002.00一年内到期非流动负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.00应付债券#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-递延所得税负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-金融资产和负债发放贷款及垫款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-交易性金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-持有至到期投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-可供出售金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-投资性房地产#N

9、AME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-交易性金融负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-公允价值变动交易性金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-交易性金融负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-其他公允价值变动收益-公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-2021E2022E#NAME?#NAME?20.00%15.00%65.00%65.00%3.50%3.50%17.00%17.00%6.00%6.00%25.00%25.00%-2.002.001.001.00-1.001.001.001.00-1.001.

10、0010.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%0.00%0.00%5.00%5.00%50.00%50.00%8.00%8.00%0.500.5050.0050.0015.0015.0080.0080.0050.0050.006.006.0020.0020.000.40%0.40%0.10%0.10%0.00%0.00%10.00%10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.80%6.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-#NAME?#NAME?-20.0020.00-预测年份-2.002.0020.0020.

11、00-历史年份预测年份年度报表20152016201720182019E营营业业收收入入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业成本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业税费#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?销售费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?管理费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?财务费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?

12、#NAME?#NAME?加:公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?投资收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-营营业业利利润润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:营业外收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.0减:营业外支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?1.0利利润润总总额额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAM

13、E?#NAME?#NAME?减:所得税#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净净利利润润(含含少少数数股股东东损损益益)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:少数股东损益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净净利利润润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?基基本本EPSEPS#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#

14、NAME?稀稀释释EPSEPS#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应付普通股股利#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT&ROIC净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:少数股东损益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:非经常性损益(税后)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.8经调整的净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:财务费用(税后)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#N

15、AME?#NAME?NOPLATNOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业成本和税费#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:销售费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:管理费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#

16、NAME?加:投资收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-加:汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?-EBIT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:调整税#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLATNOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?折旧和摊销#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?EBITDA#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?ROICROIC#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济利润ROIC#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济收益利差(ROIC-WACC)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经经济济利利润润(EP)(EP)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAM