煤矿估值模型.xlsx

1、可采储量（万吨）（SRK报告）3480回采率（煤炭生产许可证标注）80%实际可采量（万吨）2784矿山服务年限(年）16.6回收率(产品方案推算）80%价格基准（良庄08.09.10年上半年平均价格）866SRK每吨成本302所得税率25%产产品品每每吨吨价价格格（元元）100单单位位：万万元元2008200820092009201020100 0年年采采量量（万万吨吨）27842784120120回回收收率率 80%80%年年售售出出量量（万万吨吨）9696主主营营业业务务收收入入99,93399,93383,80083,80092,25692,256主营业务成本30244,42040,93

2、528,000毛利率44.45%48.85%69.65%主营业务税金及附加主营业务税金及附加/收入1.65%3.28%2.47%-主主营营营营业业利利润润64,256其他营业利润销售费用631.16销售费用/收入0.72%0.65%0.68%管理费用18,451管理费用/收入12.22%19.12%20.00%财务费用财务费用/收入-营营业业利利润润45,174营业外收入营业外支出-利利润润总总额额45,174所得税25%11,293-净净利利润润33,880净利润率36.72%估估值值折折现现率率19%19%19折现系数1.00DCFDCF企企业业估估值值（20102010年年底底评评估估日

3、日）2010净利润33,880加：折旧与摊销1,286减：资本性支出自由现金流35,166折现现金流35,166股权价值202,83673%73%股股权权价价值值148,070148,070采采矿矿权权估估值值（20102010年年底底评评估估日日）20100净利润33,880加：折旧与摊销1,286减：资本性支出84,430自由现金流-47,266折现系数1.00折现现金流-47,266采采矿矿权权价价值值120,403120,40373%73%采采矿矿权权价价值值87,89487,894每每吨吨储储量量矿矿权权价价值值18.7318.730909年年底底净净资资产产81,9991010年年

4、的的净净利利润润33,8801010年年未未分分配配利利润润3,3881010年年底底净净资资产产85,3871010年年底底采采矿矿权权净净值值9571010年年底底的的资资本本性性支支出出84,430DDMDDM估估值值分红比率90%净利润73%股权分红分红折现值分分红红现现值值合合计计回回报报分分析析期初投入自由现金流-90000IRRIRR27.52%27.52%回回报报分分析析净利润所占股份73%分红比率90%分红-90000分分红红IRR24.30%24.30%敏敏感感性性分分析析DCFDCF估估值值148,070产品价格70020996727.50%20996727.50%209

5、96727.50%75024661585.34%24661585.34%24661585.34%80028326443.19%28326443.19%28326443.19%85031991301.04%31991301.04%31991301.04%90035656158.88%35656158.88%35656158.88%95039321016.73%39321016.73%39321016.73%100042985874.58%42985874.58%42985874.58%105046650732.42%46650732.42%46650732.42%110050315590.27%

6、50315590.27%50315590.27%115053980448.12%53980448.12%53980448.12%120057645305.96%57645305.96%57645305.96%125061310163.81%61310163.81%61310163.81%130064975021.65%64975021.65%64975021.65%DDM估估值值分红比率110,18430%11217866.80%11217866.80%11217866.80%40%14957155.73%14957155.73%14957155.73%50%18696444.66%18696

7、444.66%18696444.66%60%22435733.59%22435733.59%22435733.59%70%26175022.52%26175022.52%26175022.52%80%29914311.46%29914311.46%29914311.46%90%33653600.39%33653600.39%33653600.39%分红比率961961201120112012201220132013201420142015201520162016201720171 12 23 34 45 56 67 712012012012012012012012012012012012012

8、0120969696969696969696969696969692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25628,00028,00028,00028,00028,00028,00036,24069.65%69.65%69.65%69.65%69.65%69.65%60.72%2277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%-64,25664,25664,

9、25664,25664,25664,25656,016631.16631.16631.16631.16631.16631.16631.160.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%15,78915,78915,78915,78915,78915,78915,78917.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%-47,83647,83647,83647,83647,83647,83639,596-47,83647,83647,83647,83647,83647,83639,59611,95911,95911,95911,95911

10、,95911,9599,899-35,87735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87729,69738.89%38.89%38.89%38.89%38.89%38.89%32.19%0.840.710.590.500.420.350.30201120122013201420152016201735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87729,6971,2861,2861,2861,2861,2861,2861,286-18,0691537,16337,16337,16337,16337,16319,09530,96831,23026,24322,0

11、5318,53215,5736,7249,1642011201220132014201520162017123456735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87729,6971,2861,2861,2861,2861,2861,2861,286-18,0691537,16337,16337,16337,16337,16319,09530,9680.840.710.590.500.420.350.3031,23026,24322,05318,53215,5736,7249,1649035,87735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87729,6972

12、3,57123,57123,57123,57123,57123,57119,51119,80816,64513,98811,7549,8778,3005,774110,184110,18427,12927,12927,12927,12927,12913,93922,60635,87735,87735,87735,87735,87735,87729,69723,57123,57123,57123,57123,57123,57119,511折现率10%15%20%25%30%35%40%115,67593,66178,99868,72561,20955,50551,039134,660108,60

13、891,29979,20770,38663,71158,499153,646123,555103,60189,69079,56471,91665,960172,632138,502115,902100,17288,74180,12273,420191,617153,449128,204110,65497,91888,32880,880210,603168,397140,505121,136107,09596,53488,341229,589183,344152,807131,618116,272104,74095,801248,574198,291165,108142,101125,44911

14、2,946103,261267,560213,238177,410152,583134,626121,152110,721286,546228,185189,711163,065143,803129,358118,182305,531243,132202,013173,547152,980137,564125,642324,517258,079214,314184,030162,157145,769133,102343,503273,026226,616194,512171,334153,975140,562折现率10%15%20%25%30%35%40%56,77743,84635,2602

15、9,27724,93021,65719,11975,70358,46247,01439,03633,24028,87625,49194,62873,07758,76748,79541,55036,09531,864113,55487,69270,52058,55449,85943,31538,237132,480102,30882,27468,31358,16950,53444,610151,405116,92394,02778,07166,47957,75350,983170,331131,538105,78087,83074,78964,97257,35620182018201920192

16、0202020202120212022202220232023202420248 89 910101111121213131414120120120120120120120120120120120120120120969696969696969696969696969692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25692,25636,24036,24036,24036,24036,24036,24036,24060.72%60.72%60.72%60.72%60.72%60.72%60.72%2277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212277.212.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%-56,01656,01656,01656,01656,01656,01656,016631.16631.16631.16631.16631.16631.16631.160.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.6