高盛Goldman_Sachs估值培训课程资料（77页）.pdf

1、 The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.Equity Valuation Understanding whats important November 2009 Helen Jewell,CFA 44-20-7552-9454 Introduction We are going to consider three of the most popular and effective valuation tools Returns based analysis Multiple Analysis DCF For each of them we are going to look

2、at:How they work Why some work better than others,and.Why they are all simply different ways of looking at the same thing Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Returns Based Analysis Key Idea Its all about the value-added Excess value created by a company Actual Return versus Required Return CR

3、OCI WACC Versus Total EV Excess value attributed by the market Actual Value versus Invested Value Gross Cash Invested If these are out of line,the stock is misvalued For Directors Cut,but can adjust Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 Why Does itWork?You invest$100m in some assets Your requir

4、ed return is 10%The actual The actual The actual return is 10%return is 20%return is 5%The investment should be worth$100m The investment should be worth$200m The investment should be worth$50m EV CROCI EV CROCI EV CROCI GCI WACC GCI WACC GCI WACC Value Creating Value Destroying Goldman Sachs Global

5、 Investment Research 5 CalculatingCROCI Operating cash flow Non-cash items and the companys financial structure have no impact,making comparisons more meaningful(ignoring Working Capital)plus after-tax interest and lease Interest and Lease x(1 Tax Rate)CROCI=Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow Gross Cash Invest

6、ed Pre-depreciation and write off value of tangible and intangible assets Gross Assets plus Operating working capital plus capitalised leases plus investments Depreciation policies do not impact this figure Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 Companiesarecomparedwiththesector 1:1 line 2.0 1.5

7、 1.0 0.5 Overvalued Line representing average valuation for the sector Question:Why are these different?DC score 1 DC score 1 Undervalued 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 CROCI/WACC Quartile 4 Quartile 3 Quartile 2 Quartile 1 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7 Why are thesedifferent?Capex Valuable as

8、sets which are not revalued(eg.Intangibles)Growth.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8 What aboutgrowth?Absolute growth is not the driver of value Why?Growth isnt always good Returns,not growth,have historically been shown to drive valuations Returns are more stable and consistent than growth

9、Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9 Growthisntalwaysgood!If management are generating lower returns than required returns,then value will be destroyed If management are generating higher returns than required returns,then value will be added Price Down Price UP Price Stable Value Destroyer Va

10、lue Neutral Value Adding Return Required return Growth Growth High Low Low High Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10 Cashreturnspreads,notgrowth,drivevaluation andperformance Directors Cut shows the highest correlation with market valuation over time in AEJ as well as in Japan 70%60%50%40%30%

11、20%10%0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%EV/EBITDA vs.Div Yield vs.PE vs.EV/GCI vs.Div Yield vs.PE vs.EV/EBITDA vs.EV/GCI vs.Next year EBITDA growth Next year DPS growth Next year EPS growth CROCI/WACC Next year DPS growth Next year EPS growth Next year EBITDA growth CROCI/WACC Source:Goldman Sachs Research e

12、stimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.The market values companies on returns:The correlation between capitalization of cash invested(EV vs.GCI)and economic return spread(CROCI vs.WACC)is significantly higher than between multiples and growth Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11 Super

13、ior returns are more sustainablethan superior growth Top-quartile returns more sustainable than growth in AEJ as well as in Japan 80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%90%80%70%60%Average years first quartile position is sustained:CROCI:2.4 years Growth:1.3 years Average years first quartile position is sustain

14、ed:CROCI:2.8 years Growth:1.2 years More than 95%of companies display first quartile growth for 2 years or less.Approx.85%do not make it past 1 year About 95%of companies display first quartile growth for 2 years or less.Approx.80%do not make it past 1 year 50%40%30%20%10%0%CROCI is much more sustai

15、nable,with approx.30%of companies that ever returned a top quartile CROCI,holding the position for longer than 3 consecutive years CROCI is much more sustainable,with more than 35%of companies that ever returned a top quartile CROCI,holding the position for 3 consecutive years and longer 1 2 3 4 5 6

16、 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Number of consecutive years in first quartile Number of consecutive years in first quartile First quartile CROCI First quartile Growth First quartile CROCI First quartile Growth Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.And understanding the sustainability of returns is critical for valuation Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12 Taking the methodology one step further understanding the