并购估值专题14、15&16-LBO模型 - 完整版.xls

1、ABC公司杠杆收购分析融资结构:结构 1(百万美元,财年末为12月31日)运营情形:基本假设交易总结资金来源资金用途收购价格回报分析占总资金EBITDA倍数占总资金每股要约价格$16.50退出年份2023数额来源比例9/30/2018累计数额用途比例完全稀释后股数51.5进入倍数7.7x循环贷款-%-x-x股权购买价款$849.672.0%股权收购价$849.6退出倍数7.5x定期贷款A-%-x-x偿还现有债务$300.025.4%加:现有净负债275.0 IRR20%定期贷款B$450.038.2%3.1x3.1x融资费用$14.61.2%企业价值$1,124.6 回报倍数2.4x高收益债券

2、$300.025.4%2.0 x5.1x其他费用$15.01.3%权益资本投入$404.334.3%2.8x7.9x交易倍数选项转续股权-%-x7.9x企业价值/营业收入融资结构1账上现金$25.02.1%0.2x8.0 xLTM 9/30/2018$977.81.2x 运营情形12018E1,000.01.1x 现金流扫除1企业价值/EBITDA平均利息1 LTM 9/30/2018$146.77.7x 总来源$1,179.3100.0%8.0 x8.0 x 总用途$1,179.3100.0%2018E150.07.5x财务数据总结历史期间预测期间LTM模拟第 1 年第 2 年第 3 年第

3、4 年第 5 年第 6 年第 7 年第 8 年第 9 年第 10 年2015201620179/30/201820182019202020212022202320242025202620272028营业收入$780.0$850.0$925.0$977.8$1,000.0$1,080.0$1,144.8$1,190.6$1,226.3$1,263.1$1,301.0$1,340.0$1,380.2$1,421.6$1,464.3%增长率NA9.0%8.8%NA8.1%8.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%毛利$308.1$337.9$370.0$391.

4、1$400.0$432.0$457.9$476.2$490.5$505.2$520.4$536.0$552.1$568.7$585.7%利润率39.5%39.8%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%EBITDA$109.2$123.3$138.8$146.7$150.0$162.0$171.7$178.6$183.9$189.5$195.1$201.0$207.0$213.2$219.6%利润率14.0%14.5%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0

5、%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%资本支出15.018.018.519.620.021.622.923.824.525.326.026.827.628.429.3%占营业收入比例1.9%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%现金利息费用58.355.652.048.243.738.032.230.030.015.0总利息费用60.157.453.850.045.539.834.030.730.715.7自由现金流EBITDA$162.0$171.7$178.6$183.9$189.5$195.1$201.0$20

6、7.0$213.2$219.6减:现金 利息费用(58.3)(55.6)(52.0)(48.2)(43.7)(38.0)(32.2)(30.0)(30.0)(15.0)加:利息收入(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.6)(2.6)(5.6)(4.3)减:所得税(26.4)(30.4)(33.9)(37.0)(40.4)(44.2)(48.4)(52.3)(55.3)(62.4)减:资本支出(21.6)(22.9)(23.8)(24.5)(25.3)(26.0)(26.8)(27.6)(28.4)(29.3)减:净营运资本的增加(8.0)(6.5)(4.6)(3.6

7、)(3.7)(3.8)(3.9)(4.0)(4.1)(4.3)自由现金流$47.6$56.2$64.2$70.6$76.4$83.0$89.0$90.5$89.8$104.4 累计自由现金流47.6103.9168.1238.7315.1398.1487.1577.7667.5771.9资本金 现金-$3.0$3.0$3.0$3.0$3.0$3.0$39.4$135.2$236.1$49.0循环贷款-定期贷款A-定期贷款B450.0405.3348.9284.5213.7137.153.9-原有定期贷款-其他债务-总优先级债务$450.0$405.3$348.9$284.5$213.7$137

8、.1$53.9-高收益债券300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0300.0-总负债$750.0$705.3$648.9$584.5$513.7$437.1$353.9$300.0$300.0$300.0-所有者权益389.3432.4482.0537.3597.6663.4735.6814.6899.9990.11,092.0 总资本金$1,139.3$1,137.7$1,130.9$1,121.8$1,111.3$1,100.5$1,089.5$1,114.6$1,199.9$1,290.1$1,092.0%银行贷款偿还比例-9.9%22.

9、5%36.8%52.5%69.5%88.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%信用状况%负债/总资本金65.8%62.0%57.4%52.1%46.2%39.7%32.5%26.9%25.0%23.3%-EBITDA/现金利息费用-x2.8x3.1x3.4x3.8x4.3x5.1x6.2x6.9x7.1x14.6x(EBITDA-资本支出)/现金利息费用-x2.4x2.7x3.0 x3.3x3.8x4.5x5.4x6.0 x6.2x12.7xEBITDA/总利息费用-x2.7x3.0 x3.3x3.7x4.2x4.9x5.9x6.7x7.0 x14.0 x(EBITDA-资本支出

10、)/总利息费用-x2.3x2.6x2.9x3.2x3.6x4.3x5.1x5.8x6.0 x12.1x优先债务/EBITDA3.0 x2.5x2.0 x1.6x1.2x0.7x0.3x-x-x-x-x总负债/EBITDA5.0 x4.4x3.8x3.3x2.8x2.3x1.8x1.5x1.4x1.4x-x净负债/EBITDA5.0 x4.3x3.8x3.3x2.8x2.3x1.8x1.3x0.8x0.3xNM假假设设页页面面 1-财财务务预预测测假假设设预测期间第 1 年第 2 年第 3 年第 4 年第 5 年第 6 年第 7 年第 8 年第 9 年第 10 年2019202020212022

11、2023202420252026202720281利润表假设营业收入(%增长率)8.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%基本假设18.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%管理层假设212.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%悲观假设 135.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%悲观假设 242.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%营业成本(%占营业收入比例)60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0

12、%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%基本假设160.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%管理层假设259.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%悲观假设 1361.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%悲观假设 2462.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%销售及一般行政费用(%占营业收入比例)25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%

13、25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%基本假设125.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%管理层假设224.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%悲观假设 1326.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%悲观假设 2427.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%其他支出/(收入)(%占营业收入比例)-%-%-%-%-%-基本假设1-%-%-%-%-%-管理层假

14、设2-%-%-%-%-%-悲观假设 13-%-%-%-%-%-悲观假设 24-%-%-%-%-%-折旧(%占营业收入比例)2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%基本假设12.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%管理层假设22.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%悲观假设 132.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%悲观假设 242.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%摊销(%占营业收入比例)1.

15、0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%基本假设11.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%管理层假设21.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%悲观假设 131.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%悲观假设 241.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%利息收入3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%基本假设13.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%

16、3.0%3.0%3.0%管理层假设23.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%悲观假设 133.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%悲观假设 243.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%所得税率38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%基本假设138.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%管理层假设238.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%悲观假设 1338.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%悲观假设 2438.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%2资产负债表假设流流动动资资产产应收账款周转天数60.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.2 基本假设