【人才】麦肯锡2025未来医疗人才队伍研究报告英文版64页.pdf

1、Heartbeat of health:Reimagining the healthcare workforce of the futurePooja KumarTania HoltYenli Wongwith Marilyn KimeuMay 2025Copyright 2025 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Cover image:LWA/Dann Tardif/Getty ImagesContentsAt a glance 2Understanding healthcare workforce dynamics 9Strengthening t

2、he Healthcare Workforce Triangle 15Reimagining traditional healthcare service delivery 33Conclusion 45Acknowledgments 47Appendix 48CHAPTER 1CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 31Heartbeat of health:Reimagining the healthcare workforce of the future A global healthcare worker shortage of at least ten million is expecte

3、d by 2030.Closing that shortage could avert 189 million years of life lost to early death and disability and boost the global economy by$1.1 trillion.While known supply-side interventions that enable the workforce to grow,thrive,and stay can add about 5.6million healthcare workers,this is not enough

4、 to close the gap.Closing it will require transforming healthcare service deliveryreimagining who provides healthcare,how services are delivered,and where care is accessed.At a glanceClosing the healthcare worker shortage gap could eliminate 7percent of the global disease burden and add$1.1 trillion

5、 to the global economy.2Heartbeat of health:Reimagining the healthcare workforce of the futureOver the last century,people have lived longer,yet the portion of life spent in poor health remains unchanged,resulting in more years battling chronic and infectious diseases.1 Individuals face a growing re

6、ality:Access to healthcare professionals when one is sick,elderly,or in pain can no longer be taken for granted.That is because a global shortage of at least ten million healthcare workers is expected in 2030,according to the World Health Organization,with upper estimates over 78 million(see sidebar

7、“Definition of healthcare workers”).2 Without enough healthcare workers to deliver care,fewer people have access to services that save lives and improve quality of life.Currently,nearly 60 percent of the global populationapproximately 4.5 billion individualslack access to essential health services.T

8、hese services include immunization,safe pregnancy and childbirth practices,prevention and treatment of infectious diseases,and management of chronic or noncommunicable conditions.3 In practical terms,the consequences include delays that affect patient experience,such as waiting longer for a hip or k

9、nee surgery,and tragic outcomes,such as mothers and newborns dying in childbirth due to a lack of qualified health workers.4 Developing and retaining sufficient healthcare workers to assist those who are ill and promote healthy living is a challenge that affects almost every country.It is also a cha

10、llenge that cannot be addressed solely by the healthcare industry.Rather,it will take a global 1“Adding years to life and life to years,”McKinsey Health Institute,March 29,2022.2 Mathieu Boniol et al.,“The global health workforce stock and distribution in 2020 and 2030:A threat to equity and univers

11、al health coverage?,”BMJ Global Health,2022,Volume 7,Number 6;The 18 million 2030 shortage projection was based on gap to median index that averaged aggregate coverage indicator and United Nations Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)attainment score.Global strategy on human resources for health:Workfor

12、ce 2030,World Health Organization,2016.The 12.5 million and 78.1 million shortage projections in 2030 were estimated based on gap to 70 percent and 80 percent of Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index,respectively.Mathieu Boniol et al.,“The global health workforce stock and distribution in

13、 2020 and 2030:A threat to equity and universal health coverage?,”BMJ Global Health,2022,7,Number 6.3 Tracking universal health coverage:2023 global monitoring report,World Bank,2023.4“New report sounds the alarm on global shortage of 900,000 midwives,”World Health Organization,May 2,2021.3Heartbeat

14、 of health:Reimagining the healthcare workforce of the futuremovement in which public and private stakeholders inside and outside healthcare invest and innovate.Addressing the healthcare worker shortage is an opportunity to profoundly advance health worldwide,adding years to life and life to years.M

15、cKinsey Health Institutes analysis finds that closing this shortage could avert 189 million years of life lost to early death and lived with disability,accounting for 7percent of all disease burden(see appendix,“Disease burden and GDP impact sizing methodology”).To put this into context,closing the

16、shortage would have as much positive benefit as eliminating the disease burden stemming from maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality conditions.5 Closing the healthcare worker gap can also have an immense impact on the global economy to the tune of$1.1 trillion,roughly equal to the GDP of Switzerland.6 The McKinsey Health Institute(MHI)estimates that around$300 billion of that could be a direct result of the greater number of healthcare worker 5 Based on 2030 projected disability-adjusted