2024中国大模型发展要素洞察报告.pdf

1、2024?-?https:/ 2024亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?C O N T E N T S?01?02?03?04?05亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(29791

2、3)一.大模型产业发展驱动因素以及生产要素限制亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()4?1.1?u?研?撑练?锐?研?1950?19701970?19901990?p?去?太?p?太?空?p 纸?研?p?研务?纸?p?纸?p?练?研?p?练?纸?1956?吐?1957?纸1968?1970?纸?SHRDLU1980?XCON?1986?BP?1995?纸2006?2012?

3、AlexNet2015?ReXNet2017?Transformer2018?BERT2016?AlphaGo2024?Tesla FSD2019?OpenAI Five?2024?GPT-4o2023?GPT-42023?GPT-3.51990?纸?研?研?研?研亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()5?1.2?AI?u?AI?太?AI+?告AI?研?研?研?研?研?研?

4、研?练?的?的?的?的?属?属?务?研?研?研?AIAI?AIAI?AI?够?AI?AIAI?研?的?研?的?AIAI?AI+医疗AI+电商AI+工业AI+教育AI+交通AI+金融?AI?NLP?AI?AI?IBMWatson?DeepMind?AI?AI?模?的?务?导?硬件、数据、训练、存储、扩展等发展维度变化本质是算力、语料、能源角度的需求变化亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(29791

5、3)?研?()61.3?GPUGPUCPUCPUASICASICFPGAFPGA?AIDCAIDC?DRAMDRAMNANDNAND?研?研?研?研?研?研?研?研?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)二.算力要素发展洞察分析亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(29

6、7913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()8u?研?u?研?2.1?覆?SSD?CPU?HPC?纸?纸?GPU?TPU?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()9u?妥?务?务?研?锐?u?5G?务?妥?2.2?务?1985-2025?1e-21e-101e-81e-61e-41e+01e+21e+41985199

7、5200520152020NETtalkRNN?for?speechTD-Gammom v2.1?petaFLOPdaysBILSTM for?speechMLP-based?neural?network?breaksGPT-32025Megatron-BERTGPT-2BERTAlexNetRetsNetsAlphaZeroAlphaGoZero2022?AIGC?去?AI?吐?6400%?研OpenAI?64?*?2022?WAIC?10?500?32 75 155 268 427 641 923 1271 20192020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E中国智能算

8、力规模及预测?务?2019-2026?2022-2026ECAGR?47.5%?EFLOPS?研?CAGR?47.5%?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()10u 务?研?2026?56.16ZB?务?45.4%?告?8.9%?研?91%?研?2.3?研?2018-2026务?研?务?研?48.2%45.4%40.9%28.1%23.1%22.3%21.1%20.4%18

9、.8%18.5%17.8%16.4%10.7%7.1%4.5%3.0%-0.4%-1.7%-4.0%-6.1%?务?千?7.51248.656.16201820202025E2026E务?研?ZB?19.4%18.8%18.4%17.9%15.5%14.7%13.5%11.8%10.0%9.8%8.9%7.4%6.8%6.3%6.1%5.1%4.6%4.5%4.2%4.1%?务?千?2024?2024?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913

10、)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()112.4?11?IDC?u?1?2?模?3?4?务?务?的?务?务?GPU?GPU?GPU?GPU?GPU?320?TFLOPS?H100?3958?TFLOPS?12?的?务?IDC?5?10%?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)三.语料要素发展洞察分析亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)

11、亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()13u?研?研?锐?研?u?研?务?研?研?研?3.1?盟?练?练?务?纸?务?映?吐?去?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()14u?务?研?映?研?研?撑练?研?研

12、?3.2?研务?研?研?研?研?去?bug?去?研?25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%?研?研?25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%?练?研?25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%?研?告?研?25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%?去?研?研?25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(

13、297913)?研?()15u?2028?2022?AI?Nostalgebraist?研?研Pablo?Villalobos?2024?6?4?研?2028?研?Will?we?run?out?of?data?Limits?of?LLM?scaling?based?on?human-generated?data?Google Cloud3.3?2028?研?80%?研?2025?研?研?20%?80%80%?50%?研?50%?研*?50%50%44%?研?44%44%*?研?研?研?研?研?研?研?去?研?研?去?研?AI?练?模?研?研?研?研?研?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-

14、张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()16u?研?研?模?研?AI?研?模?2023务?AIGC?研?研?3.4?研?模?研XXXX?模?1:1:?研?研?2:2:?3:3:?研?研?研?研?研?100%?1000?研?够?够?够?+?/?+?够?够?AI?务?1:1:?研?研?2:2:?AIAI?研?研?3:3:?导?导?研?AI?映?研务?AIGC?研?导?研?研?去?AI?研?练?AI?AI?模?AIGC

15、?研?研?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)四.能源要素发展洞察分析亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()18u?AI?研务?AI?4.1?/?亿欧智库-张(

16、297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)?研?()19u?2024?H1?14.05?2015?-2024?H1?4.2%?AI?1/3?务?4.2?9.910.6111.111.4411.91212.513.3213.914.0505101520252015?2016?2017?2018?2019?2020?2021?2022?2023?2024?H1?纸?务?务?20152015-2024H12024H1?CAGRCAGR?4.2%4.2%务?务?AIAI?15%15%?研务?研务?AIAI?19%19%17%17%15%15%?务?封?研务?务?务?封?亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张(297913)亿欧智库-张