McKinsey Ridership and Revenue Impact Assessment (July 2022).pdf

1、July 20222022-2026 ridership and revenue impact assessmentMetropolitan Transportation AuthorityThe analyses and conclusions contained in this document are based on various assumptions that were developed by MTA,which partly may or may not be correct,being based upon factors and events subject tounce

2、rtainty.Such assumptions were developed solely as a means of illustrating the principal considerations that may be taken into account and independently evaluated.Such information has not been independentlyverified and is inherently uncertain and subject to change.Future results may differ materially

3、 from any statements of expectation,forecasts or projections.These materials do not constitute legal,accounting,policy,orsimilar professional or regulatory advice normally provided by licensed or certified practitioners.Particularly,in light of the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic and the attendan

4、t regulatory and market supply conditions,these materials were developed,for information purposes,to provide fact-based,independent analysis to the MTA for its own use to develop its own recommendations and make its own decisions regarding future plans.McKinsey&Company,Washington D.C.,makes no repre

5、sentation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying assumptions,estimates,analyses,or other information containedin this document,and nothing herein is or shall be relied upon as a promise,warranty or a representation,whether as to the past,the present,or th

6、e future.MTA remains solely responsible for all decisions,use of thesematerials,and compliance with applicable laws,rules,regulations and standards.DOCUMENT INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT BASED ON CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION AND NOT SPECIFIC ADVICE2DisclaimerMcKinsey&Company Analy

7、sisMetropolitan Transportation AuthorityFinancial Impact Assessment on 2022-2026 Revenue of COVID-19In April 2022,McKinsey&Company was contracted to provide MTA with a detailed economic analysis of factors impacting ridership(the“Report”)which will assist management in assessing the financial impact

8、 of the COVID-19 pandemic on MTA operations.Before reviewing the Report,users are advised to carefully read the“Disclaimer”page of the Report in its entirety.Please take a few minutes to read the Terms of Use below as they are complementary to the information presented in the Report.Terms of Use1.No

9、t an Offer to Sell/Buy Securities:The information provided in the Report does not constitute an offer to sell or buy securities or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy securities and should not be relied upon to provide specific offering information in connection with any issuance,sale,resale

10、or remarketing of bonds,notes,or other municipal obligations.2.Information is Subject to Change Without Notice and May Not Be Updated:MTA is under no obligation to update any information included in the Report.The information and expressions of opinion therein are subject to change without notice.3.

11、Estimates or Other Forward-Looking Statements:The Report may make“forward-looking statements”by using forward-looking words such as“may”,“will”,“should”“expects”,“believes”,“anticipates”,“estimates,”or others.You are cautioned that forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of uncertainties

12、 that could cause actual results to differ from the projected results.Because MTA cannot predict all factors that may affect future decisions,actions,events,policy decisions,or financial circumstances,what actually happens may be different than what is included in forward-looking statements4.Investm

13、ent decisions:The Report is not intended to replace any information or consultation provided by a professional financial advisor.5.Unauthorized Use Not Permitted:The Report is part of the official website of MTA.MTA disclaims all responsibility for any copies,modifications,and reproductions of this

14、Report or the information it contains that are not produced by MTA.3DOCUMENT INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT BASED ON CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION AND NOT SPECIFIC ADVICEOverview of forecasting approachStep 2 CalibrationParameters were calibrated to quantify each of the drivers to i

15、nclude as part of scenariosStep 3 Ridership scenariosScenarios were developed for the forecasting of ridershipStep 1 Key driversThe key drivers impacting ridership were determined,including future of office work and consumer sentiment away from transit4DOCUMENT INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT BASED ON C

16、URRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION AND NOT SPECIFIC ADVICERidership scenariosThe scenarios are designed to illustrate the range of outcomes possibleWorkers continue to return to work in-person,with workers who can work from home working on-site an average of 3 days per week Return-to-office stalls at current rates of approximately 2 days a week on-site,for workers that have an ability to work from homeThe analysis examines viable scenarioseach relying on the evolution of several ke