全球资产负债表的崛起：我们如何有效地利用我们的财富？ The rise and rise of the global balance sheet： How productively are we using our wealth -麦肯锡.pdf

1、November 2021The rise and rise of the global balance sheetHow productively are we using our wealth?McKinsey Global InstituteSince its founding in 1990,the McKinsey Global Institute(MGI)has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy.As the business and economics research

2、arm of McKinsey&Company,MGI aims to help leaders in the commercial,public,and social sectors understand trends and forces shaping the global economy.MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management,employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders.Our

3、“micro-to-macro”methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy.MGIs in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries.Current research focuses on seven themes:growth and competi

4、tion;labor markets and work;financial markets and investment;consumers,behavior,and health;resources and sustainability;technology and innovation;and society and institutions.Recent reports have assessed the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the future of work,productivity and growth,and consumer dem

5、and;prioritizing health;the social contract;Black economic mobility;the impact of AI;the Bio Revolution;physical climate risk;the impact of corporations on the economy and households;and global value chains.MGI is led by three McKinsey&Company senior partners:co-chairs James Manyika and Sven Smit an

6、d director Jonathan Woetzel.MichaelChui,MekalaKrishnan,AnuMadgavkar,JanMischke,JaanaRemes,JeongminSeong,and Tilman Tacke are MGI partners.Project teams are led by the MGI partners and include consultants from McKinsey offices around the world.These teams draw on McKinseys global network of partners

7、and industry and management experts.The MGI Council is made up of McKinsey leaders and includes HemantAhlawat,MichaelBirshan,AndrsCadena,SandrineDevillard,AndrDua,KweilinEllingrud,KatyGeorge,RajatGupta,EricHazan,SolveighHieronimus,AchaLeke,ClarisseMagnin,JuricaNovak,GaryPinkus,HamidSamandari,ShaSha,

8、OliverTonby,and Eckart Windhagen.The Council members help shape the research agenda,lead high-impact research,and share the findings with decision makers around the world.In addition,leading economists,including Nobel laureates,advise MGI research.This report contributes to MGIs mission to help busi

9、ness and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the global economy and prepare for the next wave of growth.As with all MGI research and reports,this work is independent and reflects our own views.This report was not commissioned or paid for by any business,government,or other institution,

10、and it is not intended to promote the interests of McKinseys clients.For further information about MGI and to download reports,please visit rise and rise of the global balance sheetHow productively are we using our wealth?AuthorsJonathan Woetzel,ShanghaiJan Mischke,ZurichAnu Madgavkar,New JerseyEcka

11、rt Windhagen,FrankfurtSven Smit,Amsterdam Michael Birshan,LondonSzabolcs Kemeny,BudapestRebecca J.Anderson,New JerseyNovember 2021Preface As the world looks to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic,an understanding of the health and resilience of the global economy can help inform the decisions of busi

12、ness leaders and policy makers as they work to shape the recovery.Even before the pandemic,the adequacy of traditional tools of economic and financial assessment had come under scrutiny.This report inaugurates a new line of research at the McKinsey Global Institute with foundational analysis of nati

13、onal balance sheets that complements other methodologies.National debt levels have risen markedly during the pandemic,giving new importance to balance sheet data that provide perspectives on the composition of national wealth and debt adequacy across countries.This research raises questions that we

14、intend to explore in follow-on work,and we hope it will contribute to the discussion of ways to strengthen economic prosperity in the postpandemic era.The research was led by JonathanWoetzel,a McKinsey senior partner and MGI director in Shanghai,JanMischke,an MGI partner in Zurich,AnuMadgavkar,an MG

15、I partner in NewJersey,EckartWindhagen,a McKinsey senior partner in Frankfurt,SvenSmit,a senior partner in Amsterdam and co-chair of MGI,MichaelBirshan,a senior partner in London,and SzabolcsKemeny,a director of client capabilities in Budapest.RebeccaJ.Anderson led the workingteam,which comprised Mo

16、hammedAboTaleb,OlivierBus,JakobGraabak,AdrianGrad,KentonHoyem,GabrielaHrasko,JoelKirshner,YifeiLiu,and ArvindVasudevan.We are particularly indebted to Hans-HelmutKotz,resident fellow,Center for European Studies at Harvard University,and senior fellow,Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE in Frankfurt,Germany,for his extensive guidance,counsel,and good humor throughout the ten months of this research.We also would like to thank our other academic advisers on this research project for thei