麦肯锡-Gang 1 Hospital Valuation Model_v9.7-20120726.xlsx

1、Summary of 3 HospitalsUnit2012201320142015Gang 1 hospitalRevenueMn RMB444.2515.7599.8706.0COGSMn RMB370.9420.7477.2556.0SG&AMn RMB44.579.189.6138.4D&AMn RMB9.919.722.924.6EBITMn RMB18.8-3.810.1-13.0FCFMn RMB1.9-1.616.8-6.3Cash at the beginningMn RMB8.0Discounted1.9-1.413.4-4.5Enterprise value465.7Ga

2、ng 2 hospitalRevenueMn RMB203.0235.4305.0457.8COGSMn RMB188.4211.4266.1429.8SG&AMn RMB32.738.046.662.6D&AMn RMB11.812.916.040.1EBITMn RMB-29.9-26.8-23.7-74.6FCFMn RMB-32.7-188.9-211.5-60.3Cash at the beginningMn RMB2.8-32.7-168.7-168.6-42.9364.6New hospitalRevenueMn RMB-COGSMn RMB-SG&AMn RMB-15.3D&A

3、Mn RMB-EBITMn RMB-15.3FCFMn RMB-189.0-249.3Cash at the beginningMn RMB-150.7-177.5494.5TotalRevenueMn RMB647.2751.1904.91,163.9COGSMn RMB559.3632.1743.3985.8SG&AMn RMB77.2117.1136.3216.4D&AMn RMB21.732.638.964.7EBITMn RMB-11.1-30.7-13.6-103.0FCF of 3 hospitalsMn RMB-30.8-190.5-383.7-315.9爆破费Mn RMB0.

4、6土地税（出让地）Mn RMB0.30.30.30.3房产税（出让地）Mn RMB8.0租金（划拨地+现有建筑）1.11.11.1Total FCFMn RMB-31.7-191.8-385.1-325.3股东投入现金股本Mn RMB350.0Cash at the beginningMn RMB360.8329.1167.3312.2Cash at the endMn RMB329.1167.3312.2276.9当年贷款额Mn RMB-30.0530.0290.0累计贷款额Mn RMB-30.0560.0850.0Cash reserve baselineMn RMB53.062.473.

5、3100.2Cash in excess at the endMn RMB276.1104.9238.9176.8Value of CF discounted to FY2012%100%89%80%71%Value of CF discounted to FY2012Mn RMB-31.7-171.3-307.0-231.5PV of 15 year cash flowsMn RMB399.2Terminal Cash Flow growth rate%0%WACC:12%Terminal valueMn RMB860.1Total Enterprise ValueMn RMB1,259.3

6、CashMn RMB360.8DebtMn RMB-Equity ValueMn RMB1,620.1201620172018201920202021202220232024837.9897.5955.11,016.31,081.51,150.81,197.21,245.51,295.7637.7686.0725.7767.7809.4853.4887.8923.5960.6154.1162.9171.7181.0190.2199.8207.9216.2223.927.830.934.226.426.326.326.126.025.918.217.723.641.355.671.275.579

7、.885.328.435.945.255.069.084.489.693.799.018.020.422.924.927.930.428.826.925.4570.4712.7801.5895.5995.21,100.51,144.51,190.31,237.9509.8573.0624.1678.8734.3793.5825.3858.3892.675.488.296.8105.9115.1124.9129.9135.1140.541.441.841.739.936.529.329.329.229.1-56.29.838.871.0109.2152.8160.1167.7175.7-35.1

8、31.463.693.7128.5164.7174.5181.9189.7-22.317.832.242.451.959.456.252.348.7102.2212.6331.7439.4544.5566.3588.9612.5637.057.7118.9187.3250.8314.4326.9340.0353.6367.861.573.976.288.199.5102.798.5101.5104.628.528.929.329.630.030.423.323.323.3-17.019.868.2100.5130.6136.6150.4157.4164.63.340.088.3121.6152

9、.2163.5170.1177.0184.22.122.744.755.061.559.054.850.947.31,510.61,822.92,088.22,351.22,621.12,817.62,930.63,048.23,170.61,205.31,377.91,537.11,697.31,858.01,973.92,053.02,135.42,221.0291.0325.0344.7374.9404.8427.5436.2452.8469.097.7101.6105.296.092.886.078.678.478.3-54.947.3130.6212.7295.4360.6386.0

10、404.9425.5-3.4107.3197.1270.3349.8412.5434.2452.7472.90.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.38.08.08.08.08.08.08.08.08.01.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.1-12.897.9187.7260.9340.4403.1424.8443.3463.5276.9254.2212.1179.8140.7301.1704.21,129.01,572.3254.2212.1179.8140.7301.1704.21,129.01,572.32,035.8-10.0-140.0-220.0-300

11、.0-180.0-840.0700.0480.0180.0-124.7141.9156.8172.7188.6200.1207.4215.7224.2129.570.223.0-32.0112.5504.1921.61,356.61,811.764%57%51%45%40%36%32%29%26%-8.155.695.1118.0137.5145.4136.8127.4119.0202520261,347.91,402.3999.21,039.4232.8242.225.425.390.595.3103.6108.323.722.21,324.84钢二数据Copy到左边1,287.41,338

12、.9928.3965.4146.1152.019.519.5193.5202.0197.7206.145.342.2新院数据Copy到左边662.4688.9382.5397.8107.898.623.310.7172.1192.5191.6199.443.940.83,297.83,430.22,310.02,402.6486.8492.868.155.5456.1489.9493.0513.8爆破建筑面积不超过10,000平米，爆破价格每平米约60元，共约60万元0.30.3出让地面积26,838平米，土地税10元每平方米每年8.08.0土地价值1亿元；三幢新楼建筑面积共14.3万平米，建

13、筑成本6000元每平米，造价8.58亿元；房产税=土地房屋原值*70%*1.2%1.11.1钢一建筑面积76,417平米，钢二建筑面积59,722平米；租金每平方米每月1.5元，参考市物价局、市房改办关于调整公有住房租金标准的通知483.6504.42,035.82,519.4股东投入现金股本3.5亿2,519.43,023.8-233.1241.32,286.32,782.523%20%110.8103.2爆破建筑面积不超过10,000平米，爆破价格每平米约60元，共约60万元土地价值1亿元；三幢新楼建筑面积共14.3万平米，建筑成本6000元每平米，造价8.58亿元；房产税=土地房屋原值*

14、70%*1.2%钢一建筑面积76,417平米，钢二建筑面积59,722平米；租金每平方米每月1.5元，参考市物价局、市房改办关于调整公有住房租金标准的通知Input to ppt钢钢一一医医院院估估值值Unit2012201320142015RevenueMn RMB444.2515.7599.8706.0COGSMn RMB370.9420.7477.2556.0Gross ProfitMn RMB73.395.0122.6150.0SG&AMn RMB44.579.189.6138.4D&AMn RMB9.919.722.924.6EBITMn RMB18.8-3.810.1-13.0Ta

15、x Rate%0%0%0%0%D&AMn RMB9.919.722.924.6CapExMn RMB9.99.79.79.7Change in WCMn RMB14.84.94.55.4Unlevered FCFMn RMB4.01.218.9-3.5Value of CF discounted to FY2012%100%89%80%71%Value of CF discounted to FY2012Mn RMB4.01.115.0-2.5PV of 15 year cash flowsMn RMB290.2Terminal Cash Flow growth rate%0%WACC:12%

16、Terminal valueMn RMB184.7Total Enterprise ValueMn RMB474.8CashMn RMB8.0DebtMn RMB-Equity ValueMn RMB482.8钢一平均开放床位数床1,0051,0051,0051,212医师数人378398409439护师数人367688710770技药师及其他卫技人员数人169169169194管理及后勤人员数人332352352372医床比人/床0.380.400.410.36护床比人/床0.370.680.710.64技药师及其他卫技人员与床位比 人/床0.170.170.170.16管理及后勤人员与床位比人/床0.330.350.350.31201620172018201920202026837.9897.5955.11,016.31,081.51,402.3637.7686.0725.7767.7809.41,039.4200.2211.5229.4248.6272.1362.9154.1162.9171.7181.0190.2242.227.830.934.226.426.325.318.2