麦肯锡-威富服饰DTC(直接面向消费者)业务Overview Trends and Scenarios-201408.pdf

1、WORKING DRAFTLast Modified 7/24/2014 9:35 AM Eastern Standard TimePrintedFuture of Shopping Primer(inc.Trends&Scenarios)August 2014|1Document ContentsProject Overview and Summary of Trends and ScenariosTrendsUS/EMEA ScenariosAppendix:Scenarios Explored for China|2“Future proof”our DTC strategy and i

2、nvestmentsWhat this is:Opportunity to pressure-test our DTC strategy for preparednessWay to identify No Regret/Must Do moves and adjustments to our strategyA set of scenarios for the future,informed by a range of topical and industry expertsA powerful,additive way for all of VF to think about winnin

3、g in the futureWhat this is not:Replacement for current DTC strategyAn operational blueprint for DTCDefinitive prediction for how retail will evolveA corporate projectWhat is the purpose of the Future of Shopping effort?|3What actions will Future of Shopping enable?Guide DTC revenue plans and major

4、investments by indicating what to dial up,dial down,start or stop to achieve 17x17 and beyondSharpen VFs capability building priorities to support our brandsGlobal(OC)and regional(DTC councils)Ensure aligned,integrated functional roadmapsEnsure optimal leverage VFs of scale and powerful brandsHelp u

5、s consider more holistic ways to measure business impact of our DTC investments across all channelsReflect the rapidly evolving way that consumers shopClarify implementation sequencing with a focus toward 2015Inform 2015 budgets and leader objectivesBuild an ongoing testing,learning and monitoring a

6、genda“Call options”that increase VF agility to capitalize on new opportunities|4We started by summarizing major trends most relevant to our future Growth is urban and growth is globalPortfolio momentum(vs.share gain)accounts for 2/3 of growth for successful retailersChina will drive 40%of sector gro

7、wth through 2020There are 600 cities globally with 1M+people,but top 60 cities will account for 25%of sector growth through 20201The face of the consumer is changingMillennials will represent 1/3 of global income in 2020($750B+spending power in US alone);creates new imperatives for brands/providers

8、on sustainability,technology,and experienceIncome divide will grow further,squeezing the middle and accelerating shift to valueNew Middle class in China is creating culture of consumerism:driving 55%of consumption2The store gets a make-overStores remain dominant apparel channel through 2020Role of s

9、tore will evolve smaller/fewer stores in saturated markets;differentiated experience,service,deals,or productsStore networks diversify more format types and roles are required to meet consumer expectationsInventory everywhere and omnichanneldistribution is a point of parityRetail IT budgets will dou

10、ble by 2020Productivity pressure requires big efficiency gains and cost take out(20%+)4Consumers drive the decision journeyConsumer shopping journey is simultaneously multi-channel and non-linearProliferation of touchpoints alone will not justify a proportional increase in marketing spend;brands mus

11、t stay competitiveMost critical influences will sit outside brand control;skepticism of brand influence is highEndless product choice and ubiquitous information will require increased product curation and message personalization3Channels and models are splinteringFrom 5 primary channels to 15+New en

12、trants emerging and scaling faster than ever beforeShift to value accelerates;mid-market shrinkingNext generation of retailers may include Google,Apple,and Intel5Traditional value chain reshapedAmazon and Alibaba pressure end-to-end value chainValue shifts from retailers to tech and data providers3r

13、dparty providers gain significant scale advantagePartner model evolves given profit pressure;small players squeezed6|5 and we used trend inputs to develop different future scenarios for 2020Today+Incremental urbanization Continued emergence of new retail models1Free 2-3 day shippingCategory growth:O

14、nline Oligopolists Few dominant players Major investment to eliminate online barriers2Free next day shippingCategory growth:Splintering at Scale New business models accelerate and scale Traditional retailers become multi-modal3Free next day shippingCategory growth:Value Accelerates Fashion at low pr

15、ices Alternative,non-ownership models4Free 2-3 day shippingCategory growth:At trendBelow trendAbove trendBelow trendOnlinepenetration:US/EU 20%China 35%Onlinepenetration:US/EU 40%China 50%Onlinepenetration:US/EU 30%China 40%Onlinepenetration:US/EU 20%China 35%|6At our CoP meeting we will review the

16、implications of these scenarios on our business,which we have framed to VF leadership as Must Do actions,and we will discuss next steps to activate and accelerate the work moving into 2015.|7Document ContentsProject Overview and Summary of Trends and ScenariosTrends RecapUS/EMEA ScenariosAppendix:Scenarios Explored for China|8Growth is urban and growth is global1aMarket momentum(vs.share gain)accounts for 2/3 of growth for successful companies Top US retailers grew 65%from portfolio momentum bet