德勤-福特中国电动汽车市场研究项目建议书_VDRAFT_20170307.pptx

1、Deloitte screen small Jan 2010 2017 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.All rights reserved.China NEV Market Outlook Discussion Deck Andreas Maennel&Quan Zhou&Ken DeWoskin S&O Automotive Consulting Deloitte China Deloitte screen small Jan 2010 2017 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.All rights reserved.W

2、hite markers indicate position of Deloitte Drawing Guides 7.40 cm 2.91 Inches 6.00 cm 2.36 Inches 8.00 cm 3.15 Inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches To view Deloitte drawing guides:1.Right-click on slide and select Grid and Guides.2.Check Display draw

3、ing guides on screen 3.Select OK Ford is looking at opportunities for its NEV business in China and wants an in-depth understanding of future business model to make strategic decisions Deloitte 2 Our Understanding BAT Movement China NEV Market Deloitte Expertise?Appendix Background As part of a mark

4、et assessment project,Ford should create an in-depth understanding of future NEV development.On this basis,sustainable product portfolio and business model solutions need to be developed Our Suggestion Ford is seeing significant shifts in EV products across other OEMs and changes in demand patterns

5、across China OEMs are skipping complete segments in China and trying to switch business focus from gasoline engines to NEV;BAT are moving towards automotive eco-system,impacting the traditional ecosystem Hence,a better understanding of the China EV market is required in order to make sustainable dec

6、isions on“where-to-play”and“how-to-win”Based on an in-depth understanding of future trends,Ford would like to identify how would changes,customer perceptions and BAT movements make impacts on EV business model and volume Deloitte screen small Jan 2010 2017 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.All rights

7、 reserved.White markers indicate position of Deloitte Drawing Guides 7.40 cm 2.91 Inches 6.00 cm 2.36 Inches 8.00 cm 3.15 Inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches To view Deloitte drawing guides:1.Right-click on slide and select Grid and Guides.2.Check D

8、isplay drawing guides on screen 3.Select OK Huge gap remains between 2016 NEV sales and 2020 target:there are supportive policies but future uncertainties remains Deloitte 3 Source:,CAAM,Monitor Deloitte Analysis China NEV Market Development&Forecast Our Understanding BAT Movement China NEV Market D

9、eloitte Expertise?14,60483,6103,0382016 2020 336,000 257,000 79,000 1,000,000 2015 331,092 17,642 74,763 2014 45,048 247,482 2013 29,715 BEV PHEV(2013-2020E)Appendix Local 没出台，不确定 Supporting Policies Free license plate:free or immidiate license plate registrstion policies are issued by municipal gov

10、ernments Purchase Tax Exemption:From 2014-2017,all of the purchase tax are exempted for locally produced NEVs NEV Innovation Technology Subsidy:In“China Manufacture 2025”,NEV is emphasized as future technology focus;there will be national subsidy for technology innovation CAFC Policy:CAFC are pushin

11、g OEMs to produce NEVs Recent Regulatory Uncertainty Subsidy reduction:recent new NEV subsidy policy has significantly cut off subsidies;in future,central government subsidies will drop by 20%in 2017-2018;municipal government subsidies should be no more than 50%of central government subsidies NEV po

12、ints system:CAAM is appealing to change NEV points in 2018-2020 from planned 8%,10%,12%of car production volume to 5%,8%,12%,but this hasnt been issued Target Deloitte screen small Jan 2010 2017 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.All rights reserved.White markers indicate position of Deloitte Drawing

13、Guides 7.40 cm 2.91 Inches 6.00 cm 2.36 Inches 8.00 cm 3.15 Inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 0.50 cm 0.2 inches 11.70 cm 4.61 inches To view Deloitte drawing guides:1.Right-click on slide and select Grid and Guides.2.Check Display drawing guides on screen 3.Select OK The recent and fut

14、ure growth can be mainly attributed to four main factors out of which the strong governmental support is the essential driver Deloitte 4 Source:CAMM,MIIT,MOST,Monitor Deloitte Analysis NEV Market Growth Drivers Infrastructure Setup Customer Acceptance Purchase and Registration Convenience Technology

15、 Advancement NEV Market Growth Drivers Chines customers are showing a growing interest towards NEVs due to:-Improved vehicle safety-Growing infrastructure solution-Product availability -Improved overall performance-Matured NEV market-BUT:lost demand due to subsidy cuts Currently,there are over 30,00

16、0 charging stations,however,this number is expected to grow 160 times to 4.8 million by 2020 Governmet also provide subsidy for charging station set up for top NEV sales city Technology advancement will be focused on battery material improvement and battery life is exptected to double in next 3 years Battery cost will decline with R&D improvement and growing purchasing volume Free license plate or immidiate license plate registrstion NEVs,instead of participating license plate lottery No vehicle