麦肯锡-贝恩资本KKR Project Glory-Appendix-20090427.ppt

1、Conducting a Successful Business Due Diligence for Project Glory April 2009 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey&Company is strictly prohibited Appendix McKinsey&Company Working Draft-Last Modified 04/27/2009 9:46:50 PM Printed 04/27/2009 7:48

2、:19 PM|1 Appendix China CE/HA market development Overall market sizing Market development by category China CE/HA market channel development High-level Glory store economics analysis McKinsey&Company Working Draft-Last Modified 04/27/2009 9:46:50 PM Printed 04/27/2009 7:48:19 PM|2 Emerging product c

3、ategories and the mature ones have experienced different growth momentum in the past 61953744934727623022223222923923922701002003004005006007002003 04 05 06 07 2008 Market size and growth Billion RMB,percent-5051015202530Growth rate Percent Category definition Emerging product categories Flat panel

4、TV PC Mobile handset SWG Mature product categories CRT TV WG Highlights For emerging categories,China has been riding on the wave of major global tech-nology breakthroughs,and experienced leapfrog growth As for mature categories,the growth rates have been rather flat as there havent been major produ

5、ct innovations to drive the growth In 2006,mobile phone is becoming mature product;demand for mature products such as WG and TV are driven by the real estate market boom Emerging products Mature products SOURCE:iSuppli;GFK;SinoMR;Zhongyikang;IDC;CCID;Gartner;Euromonitor;Team analysis Emerging Mature

6、 GDP 2003-2008 CAGR Emerging Mature GDP 22%-1%11%McKinsey&Company Working Draft-Last Modified 04/27/2009 9:46:50 PM Printed 04/27/2009 7:48:19 PM|3 Mobile handset and PC will continue to be the two biggest CE categories,taking up 45%value of total CE/HA market by 2013;while small white goods will be

7、come a more significant category China CE/HA market size breakdown by category value,%SOURCE:iSuppli;GFK;SinoMR;Zhongyikang;IDC;CCID;Gartner;Euromonitor;Team analysis 8%1998 20%8%16%3%8%27%13%2003 21%8%18%4%10%18%10%5%21%2008 16%8%22%4%9%3%21%2013E 14%11%23%4%9%1%5%5%60 70 80 90 08 98 03 13 Others M

8、obile handset PC Air Conditioner Small WG Washer Refrigerator CRT TV Flat panel TV 0 100 40 10 20 30 50 ESS currently is not well positioned to capture the opportunities in PC and mobile handset PRELIMINARY 0%3%12%12%Emerging products Mature products McKinsey&Company Working Draft-Last Modified 04/2

9、7/2009 9:46:50 PM Printed 04/27/2009 7:48:19 PM|4 Penetration of major CE/HA categories in China will continue to increase,matching or even overtaking the 2007 level of developed countries by 2013(1/2)227 US 131 DE 191 JP Penetration%of HH SOURCE:Gartner;NBS;Euromonitor;Insights China survey;intervi

10、ews;Team analysis TV A/C 88 US 83 JP Refrigerator 97 US 99 DE 100 JP 9468131 2003 138 2007 151 113 2013E Urban Rural 9562302182003 2007 135 2013E 9589973726162003 2007 2013E CTV is the first CE category for Chinese households to purchase,as watching TV remains as one of the top pastimes in China As

11、Chinese households enjoy bigger living space,50%+of them tend to have 1 CTV per room this is in line with the trends observed in the US There is clear trend for consumers to upgrade from CRT to flat panel TV,however they tend to still keep the old CRT TVs if the TVs are still within lifecycle The A/

12、Cs in Chinese households are often split or stand type,instead of the central A/C like in the US.It is common for a household to have 1 A/C for each main room in the apartment this trend is likely to continue given China will still have mainly small-size apartments(150 m2)where central A/C is not mo

13、st efficient Rapid increase of A/C penetration in China in recent years was also due to that recent years China has continuously experienced record hot summers Refrigerator is already a very mature category in urban china market,penetration rates already close to mature markets The growth potential

14、mainly exist in Chinas rural area It has become the most popular category in the recent“Appliances Go Rural Program”BACKUP McKinsey&Company Working Draft-Last Modified 04/27/2009 9:46:50 PM Printed 04/27/2009 7:48:19 PM|5 Penetration of major CE/HA categories in China will continue to increase,match

15、ing or even overtaking the 2007 level of developed countries by 2013(2/2)Penetration%of HH 77 US DE 97 JP 95 Washer Consumer PC 78 DE 73 JP 76 US Mobile handset1 87 US 125 DE JP 83 979288544332Rural Urban 2003 2007 2013 71542820402003 2007 2013E 725729331882003 2007 2013E 1 Based on individual penet

16、ration Washer is another mature category in urban China market;penetration level is on par with that of Germany and Japan,and higher than the U.S.where some people also rely on public laundry mats Growth in the rural area is mainly driven by the changes in living pattern more women in rural areas are joining the working forces,and need to be freed from labor-intensive housework Consumer PC will continue to penetrate in urban China,catching up with mature markets in the next 5-10 years.One key dr