BCG-马来西亚国库中国R2X Interim商业尽职调查报告-20151102.pptx

1、Project Rice2X Interim report November 2nd,2015 20151102 R2X Interim vSent.pptx 1 Draftfor discussion only Copyright 2014 by The Boston Consulting Group,Inc.All rights reserved.Project update Survey Received sample of 220 from agency,and final result on next Monday(Nov.2nd)Focus group Questions fina

2、lized,1st FG this Thursday in Shanghai and obtained initial findings 2nd FG will be next Wednesday in Beijing 3rd FG in tier 3 city TBD Interim report Will go over the interim report today 20151102 R2X Interim vSent.pptx 2 Draftfor discussion only Copyright 2014 by The Boston Consulting Group,Inc.Al

3、l rights reserved.Executive summary(1/3)Overall Smartphone market in China Market size is about 420M Units/year,and volume expected to be flat for next 5 years due to high penetration.Low tier/rural will outgrow high tier Market is consolidating.R2X and Huawei are leaders with 16%MS.Apple,OPPO and V

4、IVO are growing,Lenovo,Samsung and coolpad are loosing By price band Entry segment($100 or$550 or 3,300+):Dominated by Apple,and expected to be stable or slightly drop as 6S isnt as innovative as 6.Huawei is challenging this segment with Mate By channel Online direct(e.g.,R2X.com or H):Expected to g

5、row,but growth rate will slow down,as e-commerce saturated and constrained by infrastructure such as delivery network and internet penetration R2X dominate direct online channel with high brand awareness and website traffic.Others are constraining online supply to protect offline channel premium 201

6、51102 R2X Interim vSent.pptx 4 Draftfor discussion only Copyright 2014 by The Boston Consulting Group,Inc.All rights reserved.Executive summary(3/3)eTailer(JD and Tmall,etc):Expected to grow,but growth rate will slow down.Major eTailers plan to expand offline via B2B2C Huawei lead sales in this chan

7、nel,in JD.com and T.R2X just enter JD.com and achieve 1Mn per month,but it also brings some cannibalization with XM.com(but less than 50%)Weak brands pull back from offline to online to save channel cost Offline retailer:Expected to be flat,and will be a major channel in low tier and rural market St

8、ronger brand including R2X and Huawei are moving to offline to increase more product accessibility Huawei and Apple grab shares with new products.OPPO/VIVO strong in product exterior design and channel building to attract female users in low tier.R2X growth flattened due to low channel margin Operat

9、or:Volume is shrinking,almost everyone is down,due to subsidy cut R2X hold up volume with slight increase due to better brand and value for money vs.other low tier brands,as operator focus resources on limited hot models Short term R2X volume forecast R2X has high chance to maintain market share of

10、15-16%,esp.in entry,low and mid segments,its high value for money,new product launch/refreshment(RM note 2,RM note metal,XM 4C,etc)and JD expansion can help strengthen market share in short term But R2Xs high case volume growth potential is highly depending on two key uncertainties Low tier and rura

11、l market expansion with B2B2C model.We havent seen any execution on this front Upper mid segment is under pressure,and whether XM 5 will be a block buster is critical,as it faces strong competition from Huawei P8 and Honor 7 20151102 R2X Interim vSent.pptx 5 Draftfor discussion only Copyright 2014 b

12、y The Boston Consulting Group,Inc.All rights reserved.Agenda Overall China smart phone market Competitive landscape dynamics By price band By channel Preliminary R2X volume forecast Additional materials Assessment of copy cats Key strength and weakness of R2X 20151102 R2X Interim vSent.pptx 6 Draftf

13、or discussion only Copyright 2014 by The Boston Consulting Group,Inc.All rights reserved.Smartphone market summary:Market saturated;R2X is expanding channel and product portfolio to grow share Key overall trends recently Implication to R2X Smartphone penetration:Plateau Smartphone penetration rate i

14、n China is fairly high 134%(15E)subscriber penetration vs.101%for Japan&170%for S.Korea Shipment volume:1%increase from 420m(14A)to 425m(15E)Demand has reached a plateau(if not declined slightly),due to market saturation and reduced subsidies from mobile operators Volume by price band:Entry/Low/Uppe

15、r mid will grow Entry(600 RMB):sees big loss in the past due to policy change,but is expected to recover some when policy shocks pass.Long term view is stable Low(600-1,000):grow slightly and continue to drive volume for most OEMs Mid(1,000-1,500):decrease as customers choose cheaper equivalent or t

16、rade up Upper mid(1,500-2,400):grow as many local OEMs focus on this segment to drive profitability and maintain a good brand image,and customers cant afford premium brand but care about quality will choose a product here Premium(2,400-3,300):grow as Huawei/OPPO/VIVO jump in with better value for money than previous global players such as Samsung,but volume remain niche Super Premium(3,300+):stable or slightly drop as iPhone 6S isnt as eye catching as 6 ASP:Trend up driven by Apple 6/6S and plus